College Football Betting Guide: Saturday 8/28/21
College football is finally back! Week 0 is a strange concept and devoid of any games with ranked teams, but football games that count will be played, nonetheless. The season will kick off with a Big Ten matchup, featuring one of the programs under the most pressure to win, Nebraska. They’ll travel to Illinois to play the Illini and first year head coach Bret Bielema. Only one other game features a Power Five team -- UCLA hosts the Hawaii Warriors to kick off their season.
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110-spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you are seeing the most updated information.
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois +6.5 (-108): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The first game of the college football season features teams on two different trajectories. Nebraska has a coach on the hot seat in Scott Frost, who also happens to be under NCAA investigation. Illinois starts anew with Bret Bielema, who has three Big Ten titles under his belt from when he was head coach at Wisconsin. The Illini have some experience with 18 returning starters, including quarterback Brandon Peters and running back Chase Brown, the latter of whom was voted to the All-Big Ten third team last season.
The Cornhuskers, meanwhile, are bare in the offensive cupboard with the exception of quarterback Adrian Martinez, who enters his fourth season as the Nebraska starter. However, Martinez can’t do it all on his own, and there isn’t much depth in the skill positions around him.
Nebraska will likely start true freshman Gabe Ervin Jr. at running back; Ervin is a three-star recruit who was the 43rd-ranked back in the 2021 class according to 247 Sports. USC transfer Markese Stepp has the most experience of all the running backs on the roster and will likely be a part of the rotation, but he averaged just 3.7 yards per rush with the Trojans last season. Nebraska's top receiver from last year, Wan’Dale Robinson, transferred to Kentucky over the offseason. Robinson led the Cornhuskers with 51 receptions (no other receiver had more than 18). They’re hoping to replace him with two-time FCS All-American Samori Touré from Montana, but the Big Ten is a different animal than the Big Sky.
Martinez could ultimately be the difference-maker in this game, and there’s a reason that Nebraska is favored on the road. But Illinois has the means to hang around in this game. The line opened at 7.5, per oddsFire, and moved down a point to where it is now. Even with that, I still like the Illini side of the spread for this one.
Hawaii Warriors vs. UCLA Bruins
Under 68.5 (-112): 5-Star Rating out of 5
UCLA is poised to have their breakout season under the Chip Kelly regime with 20 returning starters. The most recognizable Bruin is quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who will likely be one of the best signal-callers in the Pac-12 this season. UCLA has surrounded him with weapons such as wide receiver Kyle Philips and tight end Greg Dulcich, both of whom were voted to the All-Pac-12 preseason team.
However, bettors shouldn’t overlook the Bruins’ defense -- UCLA led the conference in sacks last year with 23 in seven games. They lost All-Pac-12 first-teamer Osa Odighizuwa to the NFL, a guy who had four sacks himself, but they return the rest of the starters on the defensive line. Hawaii will have their hands full with pass rushers on Saturday.
Todd Graham has 11 starters returning to his defense in his second year at Hawaii, including two All-Mountain West preseason team members: Darius Muasau at linebacker and Cortez Davis at cornerback. The Warriors allowed more than 400 yards per game last season, but their experience should help them improve that number this year. Hawaii is naturally going to have a difficult time stopping Thompson-Robinson, one of the best quarterbacks in a Power Five conference, but they have the personnel to at least compete with the Bruins.
The mismatch that might ultimately decide the game for UCLA and keep the score under the total is the Warriors’ offensive line. Hawaii allowed 26 sacks last year, second in the Mountain West (to UNLV), and that should spell trouble against UCLA’s vaunted defensive line. According to oddsFire, the total moved from 69.5 to 68.5 -- a signal that money is coming in on the under. Our model loves this pick as the under is rated as a five-star bet and is 75.4% likely to hit.
