NCAAF

ACC Betting Preview: 5 Over/Under and Conference Winner Bets to Make

Another day, another conference dominated by one team. Clemson has won the ACC in each of the last six seasons. The Tigers are the heaviest conference favorite with steeper odds than Alabama, Ohio State, and Oklahoma.

Mack Brown’s third season back in Chapel Hill could feature a strong Heisman campaign from quarterback Sam Howell, and the Tar Heels could end up as Clemson’s opponent in the ACC Championship.

Miami rounds out the three teams in the top tier of the conference with transfer quarterback D’Eriq King hoping to make a strong return after tearing his ACL in last year’s Cheez-It Bowl.

Here are the odds, via FanDuel Sportsbook, to win the ACC for each team as well as their over/under total for this upcoming season:

TeamACC Championship
Odds
Win Total
Clemson-90011.5
North Carolina+10009.5
Miami+10009.5
Louisville+30006.5
Boston College+30007
N.C. State+50006.5
Virginia Tech+50007.5
Wake Forest+50006.5
Pittsburgh+60007
Florida State+60005.5
Virginia+100006.5
Georgia Tech+100004.5
Syracuse+250003.5
Duke+250003.5


Clemson

Out of all the major contenders this season, Clemson’s schedule might be the easiest. The Tigers’ opener is against Georgia in Charlotte, but after that, they should be heavy favorites against all of their remaining opponents. Clemson won’t see North Carolina or Miami until, potentially, the ACC Championship.

The Tigers are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, too. D.J. Uiagalelei and Justyn Ross will probably connect for quite a few touchdowns, and they return all four defensive linemen from the unit that led the country in sacks last season.

The problem with betting the Tigers is that their conference title odds aren’t even worth considering, and their win total essentially depends on the Georgia game because their remaining schedule is so easy. Bettors may want to pass here with such a slim margin for error.

North Carolina

Both North Carolina and Miami have +1000 odds to win the conference, and it’s highly likely that the winner of their matchup in Chapel Hill on October 16 could decide the division.

Each team’s schedule is relatively similar in terms of difficulty, but North Carolina gets the nod for conference winner for two reasons: they play Miami at home, and they have a Heisman candidate at quarterback in Sam Howell, who definitely has a future of playing on Sundays. The Heels also have an experienced offensive line with five returning starters. Their toughest game takes place in South Bend against Notre Dame, but that ultimately won’t matter when qualifying for the conference title game.

Miami

If Miami loses to North Carolina, they might be in danger of falling short of 10 wins, so under 9.5 wins is a smart play on the Hurricanes.

Miami opens the season against Alabama and plays a solid Appalachian State team in the following week. The Hurricanes also play Pittsburgh on the road and draw N.C. State from the Atlantic. Miami should be favored in all of their games besides Alabama and North Carolina, but an over is another bet with a slim margin for error.

Much of Miami’s season is going to come down to how well quarterback D’Eriq King recovered from his injury. If King stays completely healthy, the ‘Canes could push for a division title, but ultimately, 10 wins seem to be their ceiling.

Wake Forest

Deeper down the ACC standings is where the Demon Deacons will likely sit at the end of the season, but they have a great chance at finishing with a winning record. Wake Forest returns a whopping 19 starters from last season’s 4-5 squad, including all five offensive linemen that led the offense to a solid 265 rushing yards per game.

The Deacons also have a particularly light schedule compared to division competitors like N.C. State and Florida State. Wake Forest has no non-conference Power Five opponents except for North Carolina as a part of a strange “non-conference” agreement for games in 2019 and 2021. They also drew the two weakest teams from the Coastal division, Virginia and Duke. If all breaks right for Dave Clawson’s team, they could make some noise in an otherwise top-heavy conference.

Louisville

The Cardinals are far removed from the Lamar Jackson days and will probably finish toward the bottom of the ACC standings. While they have a relatively easy conference schedule, drawing Virginia and Duke from the Coastal division, too, they have a tough non-conference slate. Louisville plays two SEC teams (Ole Miss and Kentucky) and AAC contender Central Florida.

They had the fourth-best defense on a yards-per-game basis in the conference last season, but they only return six starters and may have trouble containing some of the stronger offenses in the ACC this season. Bettors will want to consider playing under 6.5 wins for the Cardinals.

Duke

The Blue Devils have the worst odds to win the conference along with Syracuse, but that doesn’t mean bettors should shy away from betting Duke to win over 3.5 games.

It’s true that Duke doesn’t have the talent to keep up in the ACC most years, but they are well-coached by David Cutcliffe, who is entering his 14th season at the helm. One area where Duke doesn’t struggle is on special teams, where they’ve ranked inside the nation's top 10, per ESPN’s FPI, for each of the last two seasons.

Ultimately, coaching, special teams, and a manageable schedule will likely result in at least four wins for the Blue Devils. Duke drew Louisville and Pittsburgh from the Atlantic and has a non-conference game against Kansas.

Best Bets:

- North Carolina to win ACC (+1000)
- Miami under 9.5 wins (-145)
- Wake Forest over 6.5 wins (-160)
- Louisville under 6.5 wins (-110)
- Duke over 3.5 wins (-135)