College Football Betting Guide: Friday 12/11/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Marshall -19.5: 5 Stars out of 5
Charlotte football is off to a 2-4 start to the season, including just 2-2 in the conference so far. They had four consecutive games canceled due to COVID before facing Western Kentucky last weekend, a game they lost 37-19.
On the flip side, Marshall was absolutely rolling at 7-0 until their disaster last week, when they were shut out in a 20-0 loss to Rice. Obviously, they will be looking to bounce back in a big way against Charlotte.
Our model gives Marshall a 74.46% chance to cover, and we predict a final score of 42.30-15.40, making this a five-star bet for Friday.
San Jose State -2.5: 2 Stars out of 5
San Jose State is having an impressive start to their season, boasting a perfect 5-0 record. Their defense has been strong all year long, never allowing more than 24 points in a game, and their offense has scored at least 28 points in all but one contest so far.
Our model predicts that San Jose State will win by a final score of 27.73-22.73. We give the Spartans a 60.4% chance to cover the 2.5-point spread, making it a 2-star bet.
Arizona +11.5: 1 Star out of 5
Arizona State has played only two games so far this season -- one-score losses against USC and UCLA. The Sun Devils are coming off a solid 8-5 season a year ago, which included a 10-point win over Arizona.
Arizona has been poor this season, sitting at 0-4, but two of their four losses did come by fewer than 12 points, which would be enough to cover the spread here. We project Arizona to be able to score plenty in this game, with a projected point total of 25.58, which should be enough to cover the spread.
Overall, we have Arizona projected to barely cover. We give them a 53.91% chance to cover the 11.5 points, making this a modest one-star bet.