College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 11/26/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Air Force -4.5: 5 Stars out of 5
Air Force has been inconsistent to start the year. The Falcons blew out Navy in their season-opener 40-7, but followed that up with losses to San Jose State and Boise State. Air Force did bounce back last week with a 28-0 shutout win over New Mexico, and although the Lobos are now 0-4, their loss last week was by far their largest defeat of the season.
Colorado State is 1-2 to start the year, with their one victory coming against Wyoming. The Rams have struggled defensively this year, giving up an average of 38 points per game so far this season, and our models predict Air Force will get close to that number at a projected score of 33.66.
We project Air Force to win 33.66-20.00 in what we have as a likely blowout. Overall, we give Air Force a 74.18% chance to cover the spread making this a five-star bet.
Utah State +5.5: 4 Stars out of 5
Both teams are off to 0-4 starts this season, but New Mexico has been able to keep their games closer thus far, with two of their losses coming in one-score games. Utah State has lost by at least 19 in every matchup so far this season, so they clearly need to improve in order to find a win this year.
Despite their shaky start, our models like Utah State to squeak this game out, giving them a 51.5% chance to win outright. We have it projected as an extremely tight game, with less than 0.5 point separating the two sides, but given that we think the game is even, Utah State at +5.5 is a strong betting option.
We give the Aggies a 69.85% chance to cover, so we are almost as confident in this one as we are in Air Force. Obviously, no bet is a lock, but we do recommend Utah State +5.5 as a four-star bet for Thanksgiving night.