College Football Betting Guide: Friday 11/6/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Under 58.5: 3 Stars out of 5
The Miami (FL) Hurricanes are off to a 5-1 start with their only loss coming away to Clemson. Miami has played well defensively, allowing only 22.2 points per game this season, and they have held four of their opponents -- including 3 ACC foes -- to under 20 points.
Our projections like Miami’s chances to limit North Carolina State's scoring tonight, and we project a Hurricanes win by a final score of 30.01-21.50. This puts the total about seven points under the listed line.
Overall we have a 66.35% likelihood of the under hitting, making it a three-star bet for Friday.
San Diego State -9.5: 4 Stars out of 5
San Diego State has dominated their first two games with blowout victories over both UNLV and Utah State by a combined score of 72-13. San Jose State is also off to a 2-0 start, but they have faced easier competition in Air Force and New Mexico.
If we go back to last season, the Aztecs went 10-3, and they look just as impressive -- if not more so -- to start this season, while San Jose State went just 5-7 a campaign ago. Our projections have San Diego State controlling the running game, forecasting them for 206.33 rushing yards.
We project a final score of 35.47-18.71 in favor of San Diego State. The Aztecs have a 69.52% chance to cover, according to our models, making this a four-star bet.
Boise State +3.5: 5 Stars out of 5
Under 61.5: 5 Stars out of 5
Brigham Young is off to a 7-0 start, and they have aspirations of making the College Football Playoff during this funky season. The Cougars have rolled through their early season schedule, with six of their wins coming by more than three scores, but they have yet to face a team of the caliber of Boise State.
Boise State are also rolling to start the season, with blowout wins over Utah State and Air Force. Our projections have the Broncos winning a low-scoring battle by the final score of 27.02-21.91. We give Boise State a 67.2% chance to win the game outright, so we of course we love their chances of covering 3.5 points.
We give Boise a 77.17% chance to cover the spread, and we give the under a 77.21% chance of hitting. Both of these are great betting opportunities, as each is a five-star bets by our numbers.