College Football Betting Guide: Friday 10/30/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Under 61.5: 4 Stars out of 5
Minnesota and Maryland both struggled offensively in their opening games, with Maryland scoring only a field goal and Minnesota scoring 24 points. Both teams will likely score more tonight when they face each other. While one game is an incredibly small sample size to go off of, this projects to be way under the 61.5-point total.
Our models forecast a 34.15-18.15 victory in favor of Minnesota, giving the game a total of 52.3 points. That is a touch more than points fewer than the total. We like the under here at a 70.55% likelihood, making it a four-star betting opportunity.
Tulsa -16.5: 3 Stars out of 5
Tulsa is a good football team this year, as their only loss came to the current undefeated and sixth-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys. Even in that defeat, Tulsa played well, losing by a 16-7 scoreline. The next week the Golden Hurricanes followed it up with a 34-26 win over Central Florida, proving they are a force in the AAC.
On the other side, East Carolina is 1-3 with blowout losses to Central Florida and Georgia State. They did beat South Florida and lost by only four to Navy, so they are far from completely incompetent. That said, Tulsa should win this game easily, and we think it is likely they cover the spread, as well.
Our models project a 39.30-19.15 win for Tulsa. We give them a 64.08% chance to cover the spread, making this a three-star bet.
Wyoming moneyline -115: 2 Stars out of 5
This projects to be an evenly matched game, with our models giving Wyoming a slight edge by a projected score of 30.97-28.59. Last season, Hawaii went 10-5 while Wyoming went 8-5. This season Hawaii started with a win over Fresno State, while the Cowboys suffered an overtime loss to Nevada.
We’re giving Wyoming a 58.2% chance to win, so we like the moneyline as a two-star bet. We have Wyoming with 184.5 rushing yards, which will help them control the clock and should give them a better than 50-50 shot at winning the game outright.