College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 10/22/20

Appalachian State is a large favorite against Arkansas State on Thursday night, but will the Red Wolves be able to compete?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Arkansas State vs. Appalachian State

App State -13.5: 3 Stars out of 5

Under 67.5: 1 Star out of 5

Arkansas State has had a roller coaster start to their season, as they lost by 13 in Week 1 to Memphis, followed by a thrilling win over Kansas State, but then, after two cancellations, they endured a 29-point blowout loss at the hands of Coastal Carolina. Following that, they got back on track with two wins.

Arkansas State has been putrid on defense all season, giving up at least 31 points against every FBS opponent they’ve played, and they even gave up 27 against FCS opponent Central Arkansas. Appalachian State should have little problem scoring in this game, and our models project them to score 41.34 points!

App State appears to be a quality team, as they started the year 2-1 with their only loss being a 17-7 defeat to the 4-0 Marshall Thundering Herd, who are currently ranked 22nd in the AP Poll. App State should have a much easier time against a weaker Arkansas State team than they did against Marshall.

We predict a 41.34-23.13 win for App State, so we project them to cover the 13.5-point spread rather comfortably. We also like the under at 67.5 despite the struggling Red Wolves defense, but that is a lesser one-star bet. We give App State a 66.07% chance to cover the spread, and we give the under a 55.1% chance as well.