College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 11/23/19 Main Slate
Believe it or not, we're entering into Week 12 of the season, and if you haven't already gotten into the action it's a great time to plunge into college football DFS. This week's main slate is bursting with 16 games at our feet.
As for the basics, your roster consists of a quarterback slot, two running back slots, three wide receiver slots (which also includes tight ends) and one super flex slot. In the flex, you can insert one player from any position, including quarterbacks.
Here, our goal is to help you field a roster full of fantasy goodness, and in true numberFire fashion, we'll use our in-house projections as well as betting totals and advanced statistics to tackle as many slates as possible in the lead-up to the College Football Playoff. Today, we are looking at Saturday's main slate which locks at 3:30 p.m. EST.
Let's break down which players are in great spots as well as identify some players with cheap price tags that will allow you to roster the high dollar players.
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma ($12,000) - With Justin Fields not on the main slate, Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts is Saturday's unquestioned top high-dollar play. The first-year Sooner is averaging 41.2 FanDuel points for the year and 41.6 over the last four. During that span, he's thrown 27.8 passes and has run the ball 19.5 times a game. His seven rushing scores over those four are more than any OU back has for the season. The matchup is good for a big day, too. TCU is expected to surrender the second-most points (41.5) of any team on the slate thanks to the boost provided by their top-five pace.
Malcolm Perry, Navy ($9,900) - It's not often we get the chance to utilize Navy in DFS contests, but we have to do it here against SMU. The Midshipmen are favored by 3.5 in a matchup with a juicy 66.5-point over/under. Only one other game has a higher total. And that's great news for Perry, who leads the charge in both passing and rushing -- mainly in the latter. While the senior has tossed it for just 758 yards and 5 touchdowns, he has run the ball 182 times for over 1,100 yards and 16 touchdowns. As a result, he's averaging 27.7 FanDuel points per game, and with at least 26.8 in three of his last five. He's coming off a down game, and his lack of passing could keep his ownership down. But it shouldn't, as this is an advantage spot against a Mustangs defense ranked 69th in defensive SP+.
Skylar Thompson, Kansas State ($8,400) - As this week's best low-cost play, Thompson has an opportunity to pop off at Texas Tech. The combination of a 55.5 over/under and a 2.5-point spread in Tech's favor has Kansas State at a respectable 26.5 total. The Raiders average 10 more plays per game so that could help the Wildcats' offense in this one, and Thompson is the obvious beneficiary. On the year, the signal caller averages 24.3 pass attempts and 8.9 carries, leading to 20.5 FanDuel points a game but 26.8 in the last five. He's had two games below 20, which explains the $600 price drop, but he has 35-plus upside in this game environment.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU ($9,400) - Edwards-Helaire and his LSU Tigers are massive home favorites (-43.5) against the hurting Arkansas Razorbacks. As such, they are expected to put up a slate-high 56.25 points against the worst rushing defense on the board, according to our adjusted yards allowed per attempt. The issue is that CEH is basically questionable with an injury, as he has practiced with a non-contact jersey. If he's out, Jonathan Taylor ($10,600) makes for the second-best point-per-dollar play though at a $1,200 price hike. At the same time, it opens up obvious punt targets. Edwards-Helaire's backup, Tyrion Davis-Price ($5,600), is also questionable, but either he or John Emery ($4,900) would be a steal if the team's top back is unable to give it a go.
Joshua Kelley, UCLA ($8,800) - The middle tier of backs is tough. But if you focus your attention on the opponent, Kelley stands out against a USC team that's sixth-worst in rush defense by way of adjusted yards allowed per attempt (4.66). The Trojans give up a healthy 167.5 rushing yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game. This week, UCLA is expected to score 26 points so Kelley figures to score once or twice. After all, he's done so eight times in the last five games en route to 22.9 FanDuel points a game on 23.0 rushes. Prior to last game, he went three straight with at least 24.6 points. I wouldn't go here in cash, but in tournaments dial him up.
Jamale Carothers, Navy ($7,000) - This is one of those rare times where pairing up a team's quarterback and running back does not limit your lineup's upside. Both will get their rushing chances, and though Carothers is third on the team in carries he has taken over the lead back role from Nelson Smith. In the last five games, he's averaging 20.1 FanDuel points, including 23.9 over his last three. That's in spite of a 4.1-point game last week at Notre Dame. This week's opponent isn't as tough, and that high total could lead to multiple scores from the combination of Carothers and Perry. Stacking the two in tournaments won't break the bank, allowing you to roll out elite players elsewhere.
Justin Jefferson, LSU ($9,200) - That high total in Baton Rouge is worth attacking from a couple of different angles, including through the air. While Joe Burrow remains a great quarterback play, taking one of his top two receivers is a smart move as well. At $500 cheaper, Jefferson gets the nod over Chase for me. And he's fresh off a 12-target, 9-catch game last week, a performance in which he turned in two touchdowns and 27.7 FanDuel points. The talented junior now has seven-plus catches in six straight games, making him a must-play in cash formats.
Denzel Mims, Baylor ($8,700) - Last week, Baylor's unbeaten streak came to an end against Oklahoma, but it was to no fault of Mims. The monster wideout converted eight targets into six catches for 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also came out of the game with an injury, but he should be ready to go against Texas. At $8,700, he is too cheap for his level of success. In his last three, he has averaged 20.4 FanDuel points with five touchdowns in that span. The Longhorns' secondary is young and has allowed over 300 passing yards per game. Charlie Brewer will find Mims early and often in this intrastate showdown.
Charleston Rambo, Oklahoma ($7,400) - Going into Friday, CeeDee Lamb is still up in the air for Week 13. If he is ruled out, that vacates the team's leading receiver in catches (44), yards (983) and touchdowns (13). Rambo is the next guy up with 32, 624 and 5, respectively, so he makes for a great value as the stacking option with Hurts. Even if Lamb plays, he might be a great standalone play. Over the last four, he has at least four catches in three games en route to two games with at least 71 yards and 10.2 FanDuel points. In the event Hurts explodes it's likely that Rambo does the same and wins someone a GPP.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BrettOswalt. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.