College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 10/17/19
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Under 68.5: 4-star rating out of 5
Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State are neck and neck in the Sun Belt conference's West division, sitting at an even 1-1. The Ragin Cajuns boast a 4-2 record with their only two losses coming to Mississippi State in the opener and Appalachian State just a week ago. Because of that, they are 6.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook. But how does that impact the total?
Per Killer Sports, the under has a one-game edge in the teams' 13 meetings against one another. In those in which the Ragin Cajuns have been favored, the under has hit in three of five with an average of 43.1 points between the two. Yet, the Cajuns have seen only 5 of the last 14 games they have been favored go under the total. In that same time, though, Arkansas State games have favored the under when they are underdogs. It has hit in five of seven with them and their opponents averaging 65.2 combined points -- two unders and a 50.5 average in home games.
According to oddsFire, the total has shifted from 67.5 at the open to 68.5 here and 69 in most other books. Sports Insights has only 41% of money on the under, and while it's the less popular play, it should be the one to pay off.
Our models project the under to win out at a 68.69% rate and for a 31.10% return. That justifies a four-star rating in our system.
Over 52.5: 4-star rating out of 5
It would be an understatement to say it's been a down year for the UCLA and Stanford faithful. The Cardinal -- 36th in our power rankings -- are hanging around the middle of the pack in the North division, while the Bruins -- 71st -- sit at 1-5 (1-2 in conference) in the cellar of the South and are touchdown 'dogs in Palo Alto.
The total has held steady at 52.5 combined points with 56% of bets, per oddsFire, on the over to this point. Three of the Bruins' games have exceeded 52.5, including two of the three versus Pac-12 opponents. The other three failed to go beyond 38 points.
As for Stanford, their six games have either had the under hit or push in four. Them and their opponents have averaged 47.2 points a game and 46.8 in four conference matchups. Only twice have they been favored, and the over has yet to hit in either, but historically the over is the play between these two foes. Since 2010, it's an even 5-5 split and an average of 58.6 points per game have been put up. Three of the last four have seen the over hit -- and on an average of 77.2 combined points at that.
We give this one a 70.5% likelihood of going past the oddsmakers' expectations. A return of 34.60% brings back a four-star rating on the total.
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