College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 9/14/19 Main Slate
With two weeks of the season behind us, we have an idea of what we're getting into in college football DFS. And this week's slate requires a lot of attention with 14 games of action-packed goodness.
As for the basics, your roster consists of a quarterback slot, two running back slots, three wide receiver slots (which also includes tight ends) and one super flex slot. In the flex, you can insert one player from any position, including quarterbacks.
Here, our goal is to help you field a roster full of fantasy goodness, and in true numberFire fashion, we'll use our in-house projections as well as betting totals and advanced statistics to tackle as many slates as possible in the lead-up to the College Football Playoff. Today, we are looking at Saturday's main slate which locks at 3:30 p.m. EST.
Let's breakdown which players are in great spots as well as identify some players with cheap price tags that will allow you to roster the high dollar players.
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma ($10,600) - Hurts is the highest-priced quarterback by a margin of $300, but it's totally justified. In two games, the senior transfer has 591 passing yards and six touchdowns, with NCAA bests in both completion percentage (82.9%) and adjusted yards per attempt (17.3). He's also contributed 223 yards and three touchdowns on a ridiculous 9.3 yards per carry. After scoring 49 and 70 points in the their first pair of matchups, his Sooners have an implied total of 48.5 points. They're listed as 23.5-point favorites on the road at UCLA. Blowout or not, Hurts should produce monster numbers against a Bruins defense that's allowed only 47 points across their first two, though it's worth noting that those were against Cincinnati and San Diego State, offenses that rank 100th and 126th -- respectively -- in Bill Connelly's SP+. Oklahoma? They're first.
Bryce Perkins, Virginia ($9,600) - Oh, how the tables have turned! After many years of irrelevance during the successes of Miami and Florida State Seminoles, the Virginia Cavaliers have become one of the better teams in all the ACC. They have started 2-0, and next to Clemson, they own the second-highest odds (+1200 on FanDuel Sportsbook) to win the conference. On the flip side, the visiting Seminoles are 1-1 and could very well be 0-2 if not for a narrow win over an overmatched Louisiana-Monroe. FSU is still 46th in SP+, but they are 109th defensively. UVA's offense hasn't been super-efficient so far, but Perkins is a steady hand and should be able to take advantage of this defense. The senior signal caller has attempted 60 passes and 25 runs so far, and though he's started a little slow, Perkins has sky-high potential. Last year, he tallied at least two touchdowns in six of eight ACC contests, and in four he managed three or more total scores. He represents a fantastic tournament pivot in Week 3.
Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State ($9,100) - In case you missed it, Mike Gundy's Oklahoma State offense is off to a scorching hot start through two contests. The Cowboys are averaging 54 points per game behind 567.5 yards of total offense and 613 yards yards via quarterback Spencer Sanders. Sanders is already showing flashes of a star freshman in the Big 12, but he doesn't just do it with his arm. Although he's completed 73.8% of his passes for six scores, he has taken 25 attempts for 160 rushing yards to boot. In the process, he's averaged over 31 FanDuel points per game, which should be his ceiling in this week's head-to-head. Facing Tulsa, Sanders and company draw the nation's 77th-ranked defense and check in as 14-point road favorites. Their 39-point total is more important for the offense's chances of going off at all positions this Saturday.
Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State ($10,000) - Speaking of OK-State, there's no harm in rostering both the quarterback and running back for this high-powered attack. While it's true that Sanders will eat into Hubbard's attempts and yards a bit, the sophomore back is a lock for the bulk of the carries in the backfield. He has 34 over two games, and that's with only eight in last week's blowout of McNeese State. The previous week saw him take 26 carries for 221 yards and three touchdowns. The game script favors the run even more than the pass, providing Hubbard with a floor-ceiling combination worthy of a $10,000 price tag.
Salvon Ahmed, Washington ($9,000) - If Tulsa is a bad defense, then what's that make Hawaii's? Their unit is 119th in the nation due to giving up 33.0 points and 485.5 total yards through a pair of high-scoring affairs. Hawaii has gotten victories in both, but don't count on that holding against the Washington Huskies. In Seattle, Ahmed and the Huskies are 21.5-point favorites in a game with a 59 over/under. That means that Washington is expected to put up 40.25 points -- the fifth-most on the main slate. It's also more than a touchdown above their average to date, so there will be touchdowns to go around. Ahmed's chances of grabbing one or two is as good as any one of his teammates, too. He already has two to his credit a year removed from a seven-touchdown season in 2018. In fact, the junior's averaged a touchdown once every 16.8 rush attempts in his career. The math supports Ahmed in a plus matchup.
Rhamondre Stevenson, Oklahoma ($5,600) - This is definitely a tournament play, but it's one that could certainly pay off when all is said and done. Despite ranking third on the team in rushes behind Hurts and Trey Sermon, Stevenson has accounted for 147 total yards, two touchdowns and 13.6 FanDuel points per game. He's garnered half a dozen carries in each of the first two games, which is evidence of his role as the backup to Sermon. UCLA has been better against the rush than the pass, but if OU gets up big, it might not matter for a guy like Stevenson, who needs only 50 yards and a score to justify his sub-$6,000 roster cost.
Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State ($9,800) - This slate is bursting with elite pass catchers as 10 wideouts check in at or above $9,000. Of those, four are in five digits, but Wallace should provide the most bang for your buck. He's a steal under $10,000, and if he's on next week's slate, it's likely that he exceeds that mark. The 6'0" Biletnikoff candidate is highly regarded as one of the best receivers in the nation following a season in which he racked up 86 catches, 1,491 yards and 12 touchdowns. He's up to 10, 272 and 5 already, averaging 27.2 yards a catch. And as for that 39-point total? In the seven games the Cowboys scored 40-plus points last year, Wallace averaged 6.4 catches, 112.7 yards and 1.1 touchdowns. He's a lock for 20-plus FanDuel points in this spot.
Aaron Fuller, Washington ($8,500) - Fuller is -- at least so far -- lacking the volume of a very good fantasy receiver. He has just eight catches for 113 yards and two touchdowns on the season. Last week, the senior was limited to just three catches against a tough California defense, but he's not facing them every week. As we already mentioned, Hawaii's the matchup this week, which suggests a higher likelihood of a boom game from Fuller. He had his fair share of those in 2018, having tallied five-plus catches and 80-plus yards on five occasions, in all but one eclipsed the century mark. If you need more salary relief for your second receiver, though, teammate and tight end Hunter Bryant ($7,800) is a solid option on the opposite end of Jacob Eason's passing arm.
Brennan Eagles, Texas ($8,300) - According to the oddsmakers, the Texas Longhorns are the team most likely to win in a landslide this Saturday. They are giving Rice 32 points before the game starts, and because of that they are third on the slate with a 44-point total. Admittedly, I did not mention Sam Ehlinger above, but you don't always have to couple a quarterback with a wideout, and this is one of those instances where there's value to be had in a high-upside, touchdown-friendly game. And while many could flock to Devin Duvernay or Collin Johnson at higher prices, Eagles is first on the team at 21.9 yards per catch this season. He has three scores on eight catches and is probable to tally a touchdown against a defense that was tagged for 300 passing yards and three scores against Wake Forest last time out.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BrettOswalt. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.