Breaking Down Texas A&M’s Historic Comeback Against Northern Iowa
Here it is. 99.99%. This is an all-time sports collapse. Bar none. pic.twitter.com/A3f1iUlkXW
— numberFire (@numberFire) March 21, 2016
I couldn't have said it better myself.
According to the numberFire Live platform, when Texas A&M guard Alex Caruso missed a three-pointer with 37 seconds left in the team's Round of 32 game against Northern Iowa, the game was over. Northern Iowa, at that point, had 99.99% odds to win the game.
But from that point on -- with 34 seconds left in the game -- the Aggies staged an amazing comeback.
Over the next 30 seconds, Texas A&M went on a 12-to-2 run to make the score 71-69, in Northern Iowa's favor, with four seconds left in the contest.
After Alex Caruso's made free throw with 11 seconds left, Texas A&M still had just a 15.3% probability of winning the game. As Northern Iowa took possession, seven seconds ran off the clock, and with those seven seconds came a win probability of 96.99% in the Panthers favor.
Then, with four seconds remaining, Admon Gilder (Texas A&M) stole Wes Washpun's (Northern Iowa) pass in the backcourt, taking the ball from the baseline and straight to the hoop for a layup.
The comeback was complete.
With one second left, Gilder brought the Aggies' win probability to 41.76%. Northern Iowa missed a potential game-winning three, and the two teams went to overtime.
Texas A&M didn't look back, winning in two overtimes and completing one of the -- if not the -- most improbable comeback the NCAA Tournament has ever seen.
Here's the entire sequence in video form: