If you’ve heard the debate about the figurative “bubble” leading up of the NCAA tournament bracket, you’ve been listening to analysts make cases for and against teams’ respective tournament resumes.

It’s fairly difficult to discern what the actual criteria is, and what makes a tournament resume actually stand out changes from year to year. But what we know stays consistent are the numbers and what they tell us.

Utilizing our nERD metric, which represents how many points a team would be expected to beat an average opponent by on a neutral court, I've pinpointed five at-large teams from the field that our nERD metric deems are overrated.