College Basketball Betting Guide: Wednesday 3/8/23
College basketball is one of the more entertaining sports to bet on due to the sheer volume of games that take place each day. Conference tournaments are in full swing, and this is a great time to hone your betting prowess before March Madness.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Seton Hall -4.5 (-120)
The Seton Hall Pirates could still be without their third-leading scorer, Kadary Richmond, but even if that's the case, we should like their chances of winning comfortably over the DePaul Blue Demons. Seton Hall has three other players who average double-digit points per game, and they got a big win over No. 20 Providence without Richmond last week.
The Pirates' biggest strength is their defense. Per BartTorvik, they own the nation's 17th-best adjusted defense, ranking 40th in effective field goal percentage defense and 36th in opposing turnover rate. While they're more of an average offensive team, they do a good job of reaching the charity stripe, checking in at 16th in free throw rate.
DePaul sits outside the top 150 in both adjusted offense and adjusted defense, and outside of a solid three-point shooting percentage (68th), they're mediocre-to-poor across the board. They particularly struggle on the glass, which includes being just 352nd in defensive rebounding rate.
According to their team rankings, BartTorvik and KenPom view Seton Hall as a roughly top-60 team, whereas DePaul is around 150th or worse.
numberFire's model really loves the Pirates tonight, and it projects them to win and cover at a 65.2% clip.
Over 126.5 (-110)
No, we shouldn't expect some offensive showcase between the Saint Peter's Peacocks and Rider Broncs, but as of this writing, this is easily the lowest over/under of the entire day, potentially opening up some value in backing the over.
While the Peacocks and Broncs don't exactly play at a grueling pace, what could lead to points is the lack of defense by both teams. Saint Peter's is 251st in adjusted defensive efficiency, and Rider sits at 260th.
These teams often struggle with fouls, leading to both teams ranking outside the top 300 in opposing free throw rate. Saint Peter's is especially terrible in this regard, ranking dead last in the metric.
And not to pile it on, but the Peacocks are a poor offensive team, as well, ranking 327th in adjusted offense -- a far cry from Rider's more respectable ranking of 153rd.
One of the Peacocks' biggest weaknesses is the tendency to turn the ball over, but that's where the Broncs might be able to lend a hand, as Rider is just 291st in defensive turnover rate. Between that, the likely boost in free throw attempts, and Saint Peter's actually owning an elite offensive rebounding rate (eighth-best), they might be able to hold their own on offense tonight.
Saint Peter's and Rider have gone over this total in both of their prior matchups this season, combining for 143 and 133 points.
Georgia +3.5 (-120)
It's safe to say that both of these teams are long shots to win the SEC tournament. The Georgia Bulldogs are on a 5-game losing streak and have won just 3 of their last 14 games. The LSU Tigers? They've won once in their last 18 games, meaning they've tasted victory just one time since the calendar flipped to 2023.
Well, someone has to come away with a win tonight, and in what should be a pretty even matchup, we might as well side with the team getting the points.
According to BartTorvik and KenPom, Georgia and LSU are roughly top-150 teams with only a handful of spots separating the two. But the Bulldogs are the higher-ranked squad on both sites.
Given their sub-.500 records and poor recent play, it isn't shocking to find that neither team's advanced metrics really pop in any one area. But if there's one thing Georgia excels at, it's getting to the free throw line. The Bulldogs are 18th in free throw rate, and that's resulted in them averaging the country's 25th-most foul shots made this season.
In their lone regular season matchup, Georgia defeated LSU at home 65-63.
Our model sees this one as a toss-up, so it likes backing the Bulldogs and the points, projecting that wager to hit 58.6% of the time.