The 2014 UConn Huskies proved in winning the 2014 NCAA Tournament as a 7 seed that having an experienced backcourt often pays dividends from mid-to-late March and early April. Behind a three-headed senior-laden backcourt and a deep nine-man rotation, the Gonzaga Bulldogs (or, as the national media calls them, the Zags) are hoping that this leadership can get them further than any team in Gonzaga's recent past.
The 28-1 Bulldogs (only loss on the season was to power rankings and have the fifth-ranked nERD of 18.42, their highest since 2000, which also corresponds to when Mark Few took the team over and turned them into a national powerhouse. This nERD rating means that, on a neutral court, this 2015 Gonzaga team would beat an average opponent by 18.42 points.
| Year | nERD | NCAA Tournament Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18.42 | To be determined |
| 2013 | 17.30 | Lost to Wichita St in 2nd Round, 76-70 |
| 2004 | 16.81 | Lost to Nevada in 2nd Round, 91-72 |
| 2009 | 15.86 | Lost to North Carolina in Regional Semifinal, 98-77 |
| 2000 | 14.09 | Lost to Purdue in Regional Semifinal, 75-66 |
| 2014 | 13.41 | Lost to Arizona in 2nd Round, 84-61 |
| 2002 | 12.58 | Lost to Wyoming in 1st Round, 73-66 |
| 2008 | 12.44 | Lost to Davidson in 1st Round, 82-76 |
| 2005 | 12.33 | Lost to Texas Tech in 2nd Round, 71-69 |
| 2012 | 11.67 | Lost to Ohio State in 2nd Round, 73-66 |
| 2011 | 10.84 | Lost to BYU in 2nd Round, 89-67 |
| 2006 | 10.75 | Lost to UCLA in Regional Semifinal, 73-71 |
| 2007 | 10.67 | Lost to Indiana in 1st Round, 70-57 |
| 2003 | 10.65 | Lost to Arizona in 2nd Round, 96-95 |
| 2001 | 10.58 | Lost to Michigan State in Regional Semifinal, 77-62 |
| 2010 | 10.51 | Lost to Syracuse in 2nd Round, 87-65 |
What's the Secret Sauce?
While Gonzaga is hoping to get a top seed like they did in 2013 when All-American several offensive team categories. Their 52.7% shooting percentage leads the NCAA. In fact, that shooting has led to them leading the nation in offensive efficiency, 34th in scoring defense, allowing 60.6 points per game. And they rank in the 92nd to 93rd percentile according to our metrics. This may be a new found strength come March.
Schedule Strength
What may be Gonzaga's biggest hurdle in getting a 1 seed and succeeding in the NCAA Tournament is their strength of schedule. According to our numbers, the Bulldogs have faced the 78th-best schedule this season, which compares unfavorably to other teams chasing a top seed.
One could argue that the Bulldogs have seven quality wins, including victories over Southern Methodist, UCLA, St. John's, Memphis, St. Mary's (twice), and BYU, but they don't play in a strong conference.
With two home games remaining (San Diego and BYU) and the West Coast Conference Tournament, Gonzaga, at worst, figures to enter the NCAA Tournament with two losses, which should keep them out West as a 1 or 2 seed in the opening rounds. The potential venues they'd be playing at include Seattle and Portland, two places where the Bulldogs have loyal followings which potentially could help them overcome their recent second round struggles.
As it stands, we have them as a 2 seed.
Final Analysis
While they may not get a top seed, this Gonzaga team, based on our advanced metrics, doesn't seem to be of the "lose in the second round" variety. Between three solid senior guards, a dominant go-to scorer in Wiltjer and a big and talented frontcourt, these Bulldogs are incredibly efficient on offense and better than most think on defense. Their top-ranked shooting and senior leadership could take them deep into the NCAA Tournament this year.