College Basketball Betting Guide: 3/11/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.

Michigan State vs. Maryland

Over 131.0: 2 Stars out of 5

Michigan State and Maryland match up in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament in a game with major NCAA Tournament implications. Both teams are currently on the 10 line in Joe Lunardi’s bracketology projections, so while both squads should qualify for the dance, neither team will feel all that comfortable if they lose today.

Our model projects a very tight game with Maryland winning by a final score of 68.47-67.12. We are not confident in betting a winner or on the moneyline, as this game is just too close to call. But we do think this one has a good chance to go over the 131.0-point total.

We project a total of 135.59 points, and we give the over a 58.73% chance to hit. This is good enough to be a two-star betting opportunity on Thursday.

Seton Hall vs. St. John’s

Under 150.5: 4 Stars out of 5

Both of these teams are currently projected just outside of the tournament field, and both will be desperate for a win on Thursday. The over/under at 150.5, so Vegas is projecting a bunch of points.

These teams met just last weekend, and Seton Hall lost 81-71 for a game total of 152 points. Earlier in December, Seton Hall defeated St. John's 77-68 for a total of 145 points, so both games were close to the listed total for today.

Our projections have Seton Hall eeking out a win by a score of 71.03-70.80, meaning the game is essentially a toss up. However, we project a total of just 141.83 points, which is almost 10 points below the game total. As a result, we give the under a 67.59% likelihood of hitting, and we mark it as a four-star wager for Thursday afternoon.

Rutgers vs. Indiana

Over 130.5: 3 Stars out of 5

Rutgers has defeated Indiana twice this season by scores of 74-70 and 74-63. The first game featured 144 total points, and there were 137 points in the second matchup -- both well over Thursday’s game total.

We project Rutgers to win the third matchup by a razor-thin margin of 68.60-67.66 for a total of 136.3 points. This is almost six points higher than the game total, and we give the over a 62.15% chance to hit as a result.

We like the over in this game as a three-star bet, and it looks like one of the better betting opportunities of the night for Thursday’s college basketball slate.