College Basketball Betting Guide: Wednesday 3/10/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Over 133: 3 Stars out of 5
Texas A&M and Vanderbilt square off in the opening round of the SEC tournament on Wednesday in what should be a very evenly matched game. We have Vanderbilt as a very slight favorite, winning by a score of 70.18-69.85, so we do not recommend betting on the moneyline or the 1.5 point spread.
However, we do like the over in this matchup which currently stands at 133. We have a projected total 140.03 points, over 7 points higher than the Vegas over/under. We give the over a 63.35% likelihood, good enough to make this a 3-star bet for Wednesday.
Oklahoma -11.5: 1 Star out of 5
Oklahoma is ranked in the top 25 and they appear to be gifted with a mismatch in the opening round of the Big 12 tournament, as they are being paired with a 2-21 Iowa State team that went 0-18 in conference play this season.
Our rankings have Iowa State ranked #163 with the Sooners ranked #35 so our rankings certainly agree that this is a mismatch. We have a projected score of 76.36-63.65 in favor of Oklahoma, so we have Oklahoma winning by a 12.71 point margin.
Overall we give Oklahoma a 54.15% chance to cover the 11.5 point spread, so we only have this as a 1-star bet. However, Oklahoma are clearly the much superior team in this game and it would not be surprising to see them run away with this game.
Stanford -6.5: 1 Star out of 5
California has had a very difficult time in the Pac 12 this season and they finished the year at 3-17, which put them in last place for the regular season. This includes two losses to Stanford by 15 points and then by 6 points, so Stanford has already proven they are the superior team.
Cal have struggled even more at the end of the year, as they lost 11 of their last 12 games, including losses in their last four games to end the year. Our rankings put Cal at #158, while Stanford is ranked #59, so there is clearly a large gap in talent between these two teams.
Our projections have Stanford winning by a final score of 72.38-64.18, so we project an 8.2 point margin of victory. We give Stanford a 55.50% chance to cover the 6.5 point spread, making this another 1-star bet for Wednesday.