College Basketball Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 3/8/19
College basketball season is in full tilt.
March Madness is basically upon us, but you can get in all the college hoops hype by playing daily contests at FanDuel today. If you've played NBA DFS before, it's quite simple: pick a total of eight players -- four guards, three forwards and one utility spot you can use for either position. Stay within the $50,000 salary cap and field the team you think will score the most fantasy points.
Where scoring differs from NBA is in the blocks and steals categories, with each worth two FanDuel points apiece rather than the three you get in daily NBA contests.
Now that you're in the know, we can attack today's main slate, which locks at 7:00 p.m. EST and consists of only three games. However, we do get three ranked teams, including the 19th-ranked Buffalo Bulls playing host to the Bowling Green Falcons.
|Friday, March 8th|
|Bowling Green at #19 Buffalo|
|Miami at #15 Virginia Tech|
|Minnesota at #24 Maryland|
Which players should you be targeting and why?
CJ Massinburg, Buffalo ($8,600): Massinburg is one of the most productive hoopers in all of college basketball. His offensive box plus-minus of 9.5 ranks sixth among all collegiate players, while the senior has turned his 32.2 minutes into 18.7 points and 32.0 FanDuel points per game. His usage rate is up to 23.0% in conference play, during which he's averaging 18.9 points with eight games of 35-plus FanDuel points and three more of at least 30. He had 32.6 at Bowling Green earlier in the year, and he's put up 36.8 per contest over the last five. The game script only boosts his upside, as the Bulls own the night's highest implied total (88.0) -- by a margin of 14.5 points at that -- in a matchup boasting a 161.5 over/under.
Ahmed Hill, Virginia Tech ($6,000): While Massinburg and company are in the most obvious smash spot, the Virginia Tech Hokies carry a lot of key value at home against the Miami Hurricanes. As 10-point favorites, their 72.25 total is third on the slate, but it's an injury that gives their backcourt so much appeal. Senior guard and third leading scorer Justin Robinson has now missed nine games due to a foot injury, and there hasn't been anything in the way of positive updates. He sat out Tuesday's game, so it would appear he could potentially sit until the conference tournament next week. His absence has opened up 31.1 minutes, 9.0 field goal attempts 14.4 points per game, which has been spread out between three or four players. Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($7,700) has benefited in a big way, but Hill has seen a significant boost in value and checks in at nearly $2,000 cheaper. For the month of February, the senior is averaging a monster 37.8 minutes, yielding 12.2 points and 19.3 FanDuel points per game. That's not super exciting, but Hill has been solid of late with games of 26.3 and 26.8 FanDuel points in his last two.
Dylan Frye, Bowling Green ($5,400): Targeting Bulls is a no-brainer, but the Falcons aren't in a bad spot themselves. Despite being heavy underdogs on the road, they are second on the slate with a 73.5 total. They get the advantage of facing a team ranked seventh in the nation in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom.com, and that has Buffalo giving up 71.6 points per game to MAC opponents. You might not want to spend too much on the Bowling Green side, considering Buffalo's top-35 defense, but paying this price won't kill you if things don't go so hot. Frye isn't without risk, though he does have scoring upside, averaging 12.6 points a game on the year and going for 25 (32.2 FanDuel points) in the two teams' earlier meeting.
Ty Outlaw, Virginia Tech ($5,100): For Virginia Tech, there are two guards worth consideration around $5,000 -- the other being Wabissa Bede -- with Outlaw the guy with higher potential. He is the true replacement for Robinson in the starting lineup, and in his 14 total starts the 6'6" guard has averaged 7.8 points and 17.0 FanDuel points in 32.0 minutes. The opportunity is there, and the floor isn't all that bad. Where the upside comes into play is this matchup against the Hurricanes. Miami ranks 96th in adjusted defensive efficiency and allow 72.8 points per game to ACC foes. And for that reason, the Hokies' 72.25 implied total is 3.35 above their average in conference play. You need to be heavy on VA Tech tonight.
Kerry Blackshear Jr., Virginia Tech ($8,400): At first glance, Massinburg seems like a lock in all lineups, but he isn't without equal at forward. Blackshear's 27.6 FanDuel points per game are only sixth on the slate, but he has had his fair share of ceiling performances, producing 33.2 or more fantasy points (four-times value at this price) in 10 of his 29 games, four of those coming in the last six games alone. His usage has gotten a bump sans Robinson, with that rate hitting or exceeding 26% in five of the last nine. Last game, it hit a high-water mark of 31.3% against Florida State. Against a lesser opponent on senior night, he has as high a floor as any.
Bruno Fernando, Maryland ($8,100): Even on a super-short slate, you are not without elite forward options. You could opt for Blackshear, but Fernando is certainly in play with Maryland hosting Big Ten rival Minnesota and sporting a respectable 71-point total. After all, the star sophomore has impressed all year, averaging a double-double (14.1 points and 10.5 rebounds) with a pair of assists and blocks per game. He sits third on the team in usage rate, first in rebound rate and second in block rate at a juicy 7.4%. He's coming off a giant game against Michigan, in which he notched another double-double with half a dozen blocks and 36.5 FanDuel points. A Gophers team ranked 343rd in opponent blocks bodes well for Fernando's chances at putting up a big number. It also presents a real opportunity for those willing to pay up for two stud forwards, specifically in GPPs and tournaments.
Daniel Oturu, Minnesota ($6,300): Minnesota's 64-point total doesn't do a lot for their attractiveness opposite Maryland, but Oturu could pay off big. The freshman forward has enjoyed a good season, but he didn't earn a single fantasy point in Tuesday's game against Purdue. Therein lies our chance to get in on him at unreasonably low ownership. After all, he did tear this Terps team up for 11 points, 11 boards and 29.7 FanDuel points in their previous clash, and he's averaged 20.9 FanDuel points in conference play. His minutes can fluctuate, though it's worth acknowledging his 26-plus minutes played in three of the last four. In two of those he racked up 30-plus FanDuel points so don't be afraid to take the risk and hope for the reward at this midrange cost.
Montell McRae, Buffalo ($4,400): On this short slate, there is little value to be had, but if you are going with a stars and scrubs approach you have to have it. McRae is one main source of relief here, and though he isn't all that likely to hit four-times value, he could get you the double-digit fantasy points you need to support the upside of a Massinburg or Blackshear. Plus, he is a correlation play alongside his teammate in a spot with a giant total. And the opponent bodes well for the 6'10" senior. McRae scored eight points, grabbed nine rebounds and totaled 22.8 FanDuel points in the 21 minutes he logged against tonight's opponent back on February 1. Bowling Green is 10th in the league in defensive rebounding and 8th in overall rebounding, making a repeat performance very likely for the low-cost forward.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.