College Basketball Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 11/28/18
College basketball season is back! And this year, with it comes the return of college basketball DFS.
March Madness is still four months away, but you can get in all the college hoops hype by playing daily contests at FanDuel today. If you've played NBA DFS before, it's quite simple: pick a total of eight players -- four guards, three forwards and one utility spot you can use for either position. Stay within the $50,000 salary cap and field the team you think will score the most fantasy points.
Where scoring differs from NBA is in the blocks and steals categories, with each worth two FanDuel points apiece rather than the three you get in daily NBA contests.
Now that you're in the know, we can attack today's main slate, which locks at 7:00 p.m. EST and consists of eight games. In maybe the most intriguing matchup, North Carolina and Michigan keep the ACC/Big Ten Challenge rolling in Ann Arbor. But are there any players to roster in a complete clash of playing styles tonight?
Which players should you be targeting, and why?
Chris Lykes, Miami ($8,200): The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are off to a 4-1 start, but they really aren't a team to be scared of. Per KenPom.com, their adjusted efficiency margin ranks 116th -- better than only two teams on this evening's slate. Against their only respectable opponent (St. John's), they allowed 83 points at home, putting a damper on their 25th-ranked defense in terms of efficiency. Based on a 75-point implied total, Miami will have plenty of opportunities to rack up the fantasy points, and Lykes is the first one to benefit. Per Sports Reference, his 26.8% usage leads the team, as he's turned 13.5 field goal attempts into 19.3 points, 3.3 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 2.3 steals (30.0 FanDuel points) per game.
Jaylen Hands, UCLA ($6,800): UCLA carries an implied total of 82.5 points into tonight, giving them by far the highest expected output on the slate. They're 5.5 points clear of the next-closest team in the only game with an over/under of at least 150 points. Their opponent, Hawaii, is 196th in adjusted efficiency margin and 197th in defensive efficiency -- the 2 lowest ranks among the 16 teams in action tonight. Why go Hands over Kris Wilkes, though? Really, it doesn't have much to do with the $200 jump to Wilkes, but Hands owns the greater volume-based metrics. Both his 27.3% usage and 28.7% assist rate lead the squad, and while his production has been held down by a 37.7% field goal percentage and 58.8% free throw percentage, he should bounce back before long after converting at 40.5% and 73.8% rates, respectively, in those two categories.
Terence Davis, Ole Miss ($6,200): Up against the San Diego Toreros, the Ole Miss Rebels are only six-point favorites, but they are just one of four teams with an implied total of at least 75. Furthermore, the Toreros are the third-worst defensive team on the slate despite giving up just 59.7 points a game and 86.9 per 100 possessions. Besides Washington, they truly haven't played anyone of note, and their 98.6 adjusted efficiency is more accurate, making Rebels players worth a look -- especially so with a guy like Davis. Through five contests, his 26.2% usage rate leads the team among those with 100 minutes played, and he's scoring 13.6 points, buoyed by 4.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.0 steals a game. The scoring provides a nice floor, but the peripherals bring serious upside into this favorable matchup.
Dejan Vasiljevic, Miami ($5,900): His backcourt mate has much more upside at a higher price, but Vasiljevic might be just as good of a point-per-dollar play. His 14.7 points per game rank second on the team, and his combined 7.0 rebounds and assists bring his average to 23.2 FanDuel points. All he needs to reach four-times value is 23.6 points, which shouldn't be a tough task in this spot. The Canes may go somewhat overlooked, but their implied total is tied for the third-highest on the slate.
Kyle Guy, Virginia ($5,600): This one's quite simple: target a cheap guy playing big minutes. Over his last three games, the Virginia Cavaliers' junior guard is averaging 35.3 minutes a game and 33.0 for the season. He maxed out at 38 against Dayton less than a week ago, and it's not like he has no floor. After starting out the year with 14.9 FanDuel points, he's tallied at least 15.1 in the last five, including three of at least 20.9. A matchup with Maryland isn't ideal, but we have to take value somewhere, and this is the spot. After all, UVA's 66.5 implied total isn't the lowest, and they could benefit from the Terps' 70.8 adjusted tempo (8.8 above that of the Cavaliers).
Moses Brown, UCLA ($8,100): Much like Hands, Brown should also be able to take advantage of that high total out at Pauley Pavilion. Over 24.8 minutes, the freshman's contributing 13.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.8 blocks, 0.8 assists and 0.5 steals per game, and averaging 31.6 FanDuel points on the year. But all that includes his dud of a foul-riddled performance (12.8 FanDuel points) last time out against UNC. He's averaging 35.4 FanDuel points outside of that game, including three double-doubles and the same number of games with at least 37 FanDuel points. If he can stay out of foul trouble, look for a big game from Brown.
Ignas Brazdeikis, Michigan ($8,000): For this primetime, in-the-spotlight game, I'm staying away from Tar Heels as the Wolverines boast the NCAA's top-ranked defense, by KenPom's metrics. But for Michigan, it's a plus matchup at home. Now, UNC does check in 19th in defensive efficiency, but due to their 12th-ranked pace they are giving up 72.9 points per game to their opponents. The freshman Brazdeikis leads Michigan starters with a 28.5% usage rate, which has led to 15.7 points per game -- and when you throw in the peripherals that amounts to 26.1 FanDuel points per game. However, we've seen him total at least 30 on three occasions, and that's not even accounting for the uptick in pace we're likely to see against North Carolina.
Yauhen Massalski, San Diego ($6,700): On the other side of the San Diego/Ole Miss matchup, there's no reason to avoid the Toreros. The Rebels are just 101st in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they've allowed 70-plus points in three of five games, including the last two. Sure, you could pay up for Isaiah Pineiro, but you're saving $2,200 to use elsewhere on a slate rather devoid of value. And while Massalski's 18.4% usage rate isn't exactly mind-blowing, he's second on the team in rebounds per game (8.2) and ups his value with 1.5 blocks a night. As he's shown twice this season, he has the ability to rack up the blocks and exceed 30 FanDuel points without putting up 20 points on the scoreboard.
Jon Teske, Michigan ($5,800): If you believe in UNC pushing the pace here, you have to get a couple of Wolverines at their prices. Teske, the team's seven-foot center, might be the best value play of them all. On the back of 7.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.2 steals a game, he's averaged 21.5 FanDuel points over 23.2 minutes of floor time. He's coming off a 29.4-FanDuel-point showing in his last game, giving him four games of at least 22.5 FanDuel points this season. And to boot, those same extra possessions that have led to points have also led to more rebounds for Tar Heel opponents -- they're 203rd in total rebounds and 300th in field goal attempts against so far this season.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.