It's not that the Selection Committee improperly rates teams based on their resumes, it's that a team's resume can be misleading. Winning close games over and over again, for instance, may lead to more victories, but that's also a recipe for regression. At some point, that team's going to start losing nail-biters.

And that's one of the reasons -- among many -- as to why the analysts here at numberFire won't just use win-loss record to determine how strong a team actually is. Instead, we analyze team strength through our nERD metric, which tells us the number of points we'd expect a team to win by against an average one on a neutral court. A team with a nERD of, say, 14, means that they should be an ordinary team by roughly 14 points. A nERD of -6 means they'd lose by 6.

So, according to nERD, which teams are the most overrated in this year's NCAA Tournament?

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Xavier deserved a 1 seed in this year's NCAA Tournament, but three of their five losses this year were by 9 or more points, including two losses to Villanova by a combined 40. Entering Sunday, Xavier's 14.27 nERD rating ranked 11th-best, behind a handful of 2 and 3 seeds in this year's tournament. They actually rank lower in nERD than the 4-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs. The offense isn't an issue, but the Musketeers' 48th-ranked adjusted defensive rating, per Sports-Reference.com, could be their undoing. Since the turn of the century, the average 1 seed has seen a nERD of 18.89, far below Xavier's rating this season.

Miami Hurricanes

nERD Rank: 40th
Seed: 6

Miami ranks 32nd in adjusted defensive rating and 58th in adjusted offensive rating, and they're not a good rebounding team, with the 146th-best rebounding rate in the country. Despite playing in a strong conference, their pre-Sunday nERD of 9.77 is slightly lower than 10-seeded Texas' 9.78 rating. The last time we saw a 6 seed with this low of a rating was back in 2014, when Massachusetts lost by 19 to 11-seeded Tennessee. Don't expect Miami to make much noise in the tourney.

Providence Friars

nERD Rank: 68th
Seed: 10

It's tough to be overrated as a 10 seed, but of the teams who made the tournament, the committee did a decent job seeding them based on true team performance. Providence, though, is the 68th-best team in the country according to nERD, ranking behind 20 teams that didn't even make the big dance this year. And their first game is against Texas A&M, who have a top-10 adjusted defensive rating and rank in the top-25 in nERD.

Rhode Island Rams

nERD Rank: 43rd
Seed: 7

Like the Hurricanes above, Rhode Island doesn't rank highly in either adjusted offensive or defensive rating, and their 9.50 pre-Sunday nERD reflects that. It's the lowest rating of all 7 seeds in the tournament, and over two points lower than the average nERD we've seen for 7 seeds over the last 18 years. Rhode Island lost just seven games all year, but four of those seven losses have come over their last eight games. So it's not as though they're hot entering the tournament, either.