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The 4 Most Overrated Teams in the NCAA Tournament

Now that the NCAA Tournament's bracket is out, which teams are most overrated heading into the Big Dance?

It's not that the Selection Committee improperly rates teams based on their resumes, it's that a team's resume can be misleading. Winning close games over and over again, for instance, may lead to more victories, but that's also a recipe for regression. At some point, that team's going to start losing nail-biters.

And that's one of the reasons -- among many -- as to why the analysts here at numberFire won't just use win-loss record to determine how strong a team actually is. Instead, we analyze team strength through our nERD metric, which tells us the number of points we'd expect a team to win by against an average one on a neutral court. A team with a nERD of, say, 14, means that they should be an ordinary team by roughly 14 points. A nERD of -6 means they'd lose by 6.

So, according to nERD, which teams are the most overrated in this year's NCAA Tournament?

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