What college basketball teams do in November and December means something, but how they finish is more important. And it’s not just to fool the selection committee with Recency bias, either – teams want to be riding high entering the NCAA Tournament. Because without the momentum, the chances of being a one and done skyrockets.
We saw what that meant in last night’s game between North Carolina State and Xavier. While NC State started the season just 17-12, their final five games saw a 4-1 record with two very impressive wins and a single-digit loss in the ACC Tournament to a very good Duke team. Meanwhile, Xavier completed their 21-win season with three losses in four games, including one to a very mediocre Seton Hall squad.
The teams below are more like Xavier than they are NC State. And quite honestly, you could argue that they’re in far worse shape than Xavier was entering the tournament. This isn’t to say they can’t go on a run, but if you’re filling out a bracket, beware: things could get ugly.
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this – the Orange have gone 3-5, including brutal losses to Boston College (138th in nERD) and Georgia Tech (116th). As a result, Boeheim’s club went from being a near lock to get a one seed to sitting in a talented region as a three.Syrcause beats you with their defense – our numbers have them with the 14th-best one in the country this year. But like Iowa, Syrcause’s strength hasn’t helped them down the stretch. During their 3-5 finish, the Orange allowed 60 or more points (a 59.5 average this year) in all five losses, including a loss to Virginia where they allowed 75.
Funny enough, they’re playing a Western Michigan team in the first round that enters the tournament winning 12 of their final 13 games. Western Michigan doesn’t have a powerful offense to match ‘Cuse’s defense, but they should have the confidence to potentially pull an upset.
Honorary mentions: Massachusetts, ColoradoOur brackets give you a 71% higher chance of winning your pool. Want to learn more? Click here and get started for FREE.