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March Madness: 4 Potential Round of 64 Upsets
There are always upsets in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. What are some potential upsets to keep your eye on?

The NCAA Tournament wouldn’t have the popularity that it has today if it weren’t for all the memorable upsets that have taken place over the history of the event.

It truly isn’t “March Madness” until a feisty double-digit mid-major underdog knocks off a household name from a major conference in the first round. Figuring out which underdogs will defeat favorites is the challenging part of this time of the year.

We know that filing out a bracket can be very stressful, and you might need help figuring out the best upsets to target. We’re here to help. Here’s a look at some matchups that we find particularly interesting.

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Creighton Bluejays began the year 18-1 before losing senior star point guard Mo Watson for the year to a knee injury. Since that injury, Creighton has sputtered, going 7-8 in the 15 games they've played without Watson.

The Rhode Island Rams entered the year as a preseason top-25 team but failed to live up to the preseason hype, due mostly to various injuries throughout the year. Going into the Atlantic 10 tournament, the Rams seemed to sit outside of the NCAA Tournament but were able to secure their conference's automatic bid by defeating Virginia Commonwealth Rams in the title game.

This game will be a matchup of a very good offense versus a very good defense. Creighton was 28th in offensive rating (1.128 points per possession) and Rhode Island was 40th in opponent offensive rating (0.96 points allowed per possession) this season.

While Rhode Island is a fantastic defensive team, they have one major deficiency: their inability to stop fouling opponents, ranking 338th in opponent free throw attempts per field goal attempts (0.325).

Unfortunately for Creighton, their offense isn't necessarily equipped to take advantage of this. According to Sports Reference, Creighton had the 338th-best rate of free throw attempts per field goal attempt (.186).

Midwest Region: Nevada (12) over Iowa State (5)

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there has been a 12-over-5 upset every year except for four years. Additionally, in the last five years, 12 seeds and 5 seeds have won the same amount of tournament games. Needless to say, there's a really good chance that the trend continues this season, and a team that should be very worried about that stat is the Iowa State Cyclones.

Iowa State enters the tournament fresh off a Big 12 tournament win but with one major weakness that can be exploited: their inability to rebound the basketball. They allowed opponents to haul in 52.5% of all missed shots this season. The only team in the tournament worse than Iowa State at rebounding is Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers, a 16 seed.

They face a Nevada Wolf Pack team that isn't the greatest overall rebounding team but is very good at defensive rebounding (76%), which sparks their transition offense. According to Hoop-Math, in the first 10 seconds after a rebound on an opponent's miss, Nevada shoots an effective field goal percentage of 62.3%. That number drops all the way down to 53.7% in the first 10 seconds after an opponent's made basket.

Opponents against Iowa State have an effective field goal percentage of 74.1% on shots at the rim in the first 10 seconds after a Cyclone miss. If Nevada's able to dominate the defensive glass, they should be able to play the game at a pace that suits them and cause Iowa State tons of problems.

West Region: Xavier (11) over Maryland (6)

Both the Xavier Musketeers and Maryland Terrapins enter this matchup reeling after early season success but for different reasons.

Xavier suffered a loss to starting point guard Edmond Sumner, and Maryland's inexperienced team seemed to struggle once the team hit the back end of their conference schedule. According to our nERD power rankings, Maryland was badly overseeded by the tournament committee, to the point that Xavier (10.98 nERD) is roughly half of a point better than Maryland (10.44 nERD).

One major area where Xavier will be able to attack Maryland is on the offensive glass. Xavier rebounds 35.2% of their misses, which is good for 26th in the nation, while Maryland is one of the worst teams (293rd) in the nation at preventing opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds (32.3%).

If Maryland can not keep Xavier bigs RaShid Gaston and Sean O'Mara off the boards, it could be a long day for the Terrapins.

South Region: Middle Tennessee (12) over Minnesota (5)

This game has been a trendy pick, and for good reason. Minnesota finished the season with a nERD rating of 12.03, which was good for 31st in our power ratings. According to our power ratings, Minnesota should've been closer to an 8 or 9 seed because their nERD rating was closer to schools like the Miami (FL) Hurricanes , Vanderbilt Commodores, and Arkansas Razorbacks, who are all on the 8 or 9 lines.

Many people remember last season's Cinderella, the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders because of their major upset over Michigan State Spartans in the upcoming round of the NCAA tournament. This year's team is even better than last year's iteration with the addition of Arkansas transfer JaCorey Williams.

The Blue Raiders are a significantly better rebounding team than the Gophers, which is a major problem for Minnesota because one of the advantages power conference teams have over mid-major teams is their ability to use their height and size to dominate the glass. Middle Tennessee gathered 53.8% of all misses, good for 35th in the nation, while Minnesota only gathered 50.8% of all misses, which was the 149th best rate this season.

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