March Madness: Previewing Sunday’s Round of 32 Matchups
Michigan (7) vs. Louisville (2)
Michigan caught fire in the second half to come back and defeat Oklahoma State in an offensive shootout. Louisville beat Jacksonville State without much trouble to advance to the Round of 32.
The Wolverines biggest weaknesses are defense and rebounding. They allow the highest effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in the tournament field and haul in just 48.5% of available rebounds. What they lack in defense, they make up for on the offensive end with an impressive 56.7% eFG% and 116.1 offensive rating.
Like most top teams, Louisville is more balanced across the board. The Cardinals have a solid defense, and they've been tested throughout the year in the extremely tough ACC. Our metrics give them a 56% chance to beat Michigan on Sunday.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
| Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Louisville | 15.7 | 4.6 | 0.506 |
| Quentin Snider | Louisville | 12.7 | 2.7 | 0.491 |
| Deng Adel | Louisville | 11.9 | 4.5 | 0.473 |
| Derrick Walton | Michigan | 15.2 | 4.7 | 0.453 |
| Zak Irvin | Michigan | 12.8 | 4.5 | 0.407 |
| Moritz Wagner | Michigan | 12.0 | 4.2 | .532 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
| Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 Louisville | 18.36 | 111.6 | 0.514 | 53.9 | 13.6 | 94.8 | 0.451 | 17.3 |
| #7 Michigan | 14.42 | 116.1 | 0.567 | 48.5 | 13.2 | 102.1 | 0.519 | 17.6 |
