The Cavaliers' NBA Finals Win Made a Mockery of Probability

The Cavaliers overcame a 3-1 series deficit to topple the Warriors. How unlikely was their path?

The Cleveland Cavaliers are NBA Champions.

But they shouldn't be.

And that's not to say that they don't deserve it. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving balled out while Stephen Curry flamed out down the stretch. It's just that probability said it never should have happened.

After all, Cleveland entered the Finals with a 28% chance to win the series, according to our algorithm.

And after falling down 0-2, their odds sat at just 10%.

If you thought that was bad, just know that their chance to hang a banner at Quicken Loans Arena after Game 4 -- and a 3-1 deficit -- was just 6%, which is pretty generous considering that no team has ever overcame a 3-1 hole to win the NBA Finals.

With a Game 5 win, however, while Draymond Green was suspended, the Cavaliers avoided the Gentleman's Sweep and ensured at least a 4-2 defeat, the same fate as they suffered last year to the Warriors.

We all know that didn't happen.

And Game 7 itself didn't come easy. After a rocky end to the second quarter, the Cavaliers opened the second half with a 17% chance to win Game 7, according to numberFire Live.

Cavs Warriors Game 7
Things went back-and-forth after the Cavs clawed back in the third quarter, but one play really altered the outcome of the Finals -- represented by a near-vertical line at the end of the game.

Ice cold, Kyrie. That dagger raised Cleveland's win odds from 50% all the way up to 86% with less than a minute to play.

In all, Cleveland brought their NBA Finals chances from 6% to 100% after the amazing Game 7 win last night, allowing them to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy and gifting us all this immaculate win probability graph.

Cavaliers/Warriors Win Odds

Sure looks like a "W" for The Land to me.