In last night's Game 5, the San Antonio Spurs shot an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) .170 better than the Miami Heat. That's a Tim Duncan-sized figure, but I still wouldn't say the Spurs dominated the game. Miami turned the ball over on 6.2 fewer possessions and collected 9.4 percent more available offensive rebounds, after all. Hot shooting may get you a win, but it's surely not sustainable.
All numbers regress towards the mean eventually you know, and the Heat shot a league-best .552 eFG% from the field during the regular season. If they shoot their norm while maintaining the lead in the turnover and rebounding battles, who's to say that Game 6 and Game 7 won't go their way?
At the very least, that's what our projections seem to be leaning that way. Heading into Game 6, Miami surely isn't down and out. If the Spurs hold any edge at all, it's only a slight one. Our projections still see this as a nearly-even series.
The Odds
| 4 Games | 5 Games | 6 Games | 7 Games | Total Win Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 44.72% | 44.72% |
| San Antonio | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.29% | 21.99% | 55.28% |
According to numberFire Chief Analyst Keith Goldner, home court advantage in the playoffs is a completely different ball game. During the regular season, NBA teams average 3.25 more points per 48 minutes at home than on the road. In the playoffs, however, that number rises to a 4.08 point difference.
One point may not seem like much, but then imagine how close most teams in the NBA Finals are. A 4-point advantage as compared to a 3-point advantage can make all the difference in the world.
That's one major reason that, despite being down 3-2, the Heat cannot be discounted. As I wrote when examining the series odds 15 percent of a team's overall success. That's 15 percent that the Heat are essentially conceding to the Spurs at the start, and in order to become truly competitive, they will need to reclaim their regular season free throw dominance.