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Heat/Spurs NBA Finals Complete Series Probabilities

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Stop me if you've heard this before: LeBron and Co. are substantial favorites heading into another playoff series.

Miami went out and did something that everybody outside of the Hoosier State expected them to do: kick out Flo Rida's manager. And win Game 7. Both of those things.

Now, LeBron and Co. get to take on the well, well rested team from San Antonio, and the winner becomes champion (again). Yesterday, I put the odds of the Heat winning the championship at 48 percent, but that was factoring in the potential for a Game 7 loss.

After Game 7 though? Just like the entire postseason, the Heat come into this one as substantial favorites. Bet LeBron's never heard that one before.

The Odds

Most Likely Outcome: Miami Heat in 6 Games

4 Games5 Games6 Games7 GamesTotal Win Odds
Miami9.82%14.66%24.08%19.87%68.43%
San Antonio2.90%9.59%9.02%10.06%31.57%

From this table, we can calculate some fun percentages:

48.56%: The odds Miami wins before we ever even get to a Game 7

21.51%: The odds San Antonio wins before we ever even get to a Game 7

6.45%: How much lower Miami's win odds are against San Antonio than at the start of the Indiana series

39.47%: How much lower San Antonio's win odds are against Miami than at the start of the Memphis series

63.03%: Odds the series comes back to Miami for Game 6

33.10%: The likelihood the series will end in six games, the best bet for series length

29.93%: The likelihood of a Game 7

11.82%: San Antonio's original chance at sweeping the Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals, reminding us that these are just odds rather than hard-and-fast predictions

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In This Article

Tim Duncan
FC, San Antonio Spurs

Kawhi Leonard
GF, San Antonio Spurs

Tony Parker
PG, San Antonio Spurs

Chris Bosh
FC, Miami Heat

LeBron James
F, Miami Heat

Dwyane Wade
G, Miami Heat

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