4 Under-the-Radar Daily Fantasy Basketball Plays for 3/30/16
If you have played daily fantasy sports for very long, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field and find players that you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
It’s a lot easier in NFL to identify the players who will be low-owned due to Thursday Night slates, but NBA can be much more difficult if you aren’t an experienced player.
The purpose of this article will be to bring you my favorite high-upside players at each position that will likely go overlooked and give you an edge.
Keep in mind when constructing rosters that these are contrarian picks. There is a reason that they will be overlooked by many; they are risky plays. If possible, I’d try to relegate these players to GPP-only use, where their high risk-reward styles make more sense.
Hassan Whiteside, C, Miami Heat
FanDuel Price: $8,500
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
It's hard to imagine Hassan Whiteside being underowned against the Lakers with the way he has been playing, but center is loaded today and you can only play one on FanDuel.
Regardless of whether DeMarcus Cousins starts or not, one of the Kings centers will likely be popular. Kosta Koufos has proven to be a reliable replacement option if Cousins doesn't play.
Karl-Anthony Towns and DeAndre Jordan will both likely be popular in a head-to-head matchup, and for good reason. Marcin Gortat is underpriced and draws a terrific matchup, as does Jonas Valanciunas. Expect both to be popular options.
Within his own team, Whiteside will likely lose some ownership to Dwyane Wade, who may end up being very high-owned if Goran Dragic doesn't play.
Why You Should Use Him:
Whiteside has continued his torrid pace, averaging 42.9 FanDuel points over his past four games, despite being limited to just 31 minutes per game.
Whiteside won't need many minutes to dominate tonight, as he draws a dream matchup against the Lakers. In addition to boasting the league's worst Defensive Efficiency and 27th-ranked Rebounding Rate, the Lakers are the fourth-most blocked team in the NBA, which is great news for Whiteside. Los Angeles has also allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Whiteside has taken full advantage of the Lakers in their past three meetings, averaging 17.3 points, 16.3 rebounds, 4.3 blocks, and 44.3 FanDuel points in just 27 minutes per game.
Vegas has taken the horrendous Lakers defense into account, projecting Miami to outscore their season average by 9.2 points tonight. Miami's implied total is actually the second-highest on the board, which is very rare for the slow-paced team. Give all Miami players a sizable boost for tonight's matchup, but perhaps none more than Whiteside.
Gordon Hayward, SF, Utah Jazz
FanDuel Price: $6,900
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Gordon Hayward has struggled recently, averaging just 27.9 FanDuel points over his past six games.
Giannis Antetokounmpo should be one of the most popular plays today in a prime matchup against Phoenix, and Andrew Wiggins will likely be a more popular option than Hayward at a similar price-point. There are also some potential value plays who could emerge at small forward, depending on the injury news tomorrow.
Why You Should Use Him:
Hayward draws a matchup against the Warriors, who have been average against small forwards on the season. A closer look suggests that this matchup is perfect for a swingman with his skill-set, though.
The Warriors' defense has shown an inability to defend pick and roll ball handlers and to defend in transition.
Hayward thrives in both areas as he is one of the best small forwards in transition and has the fourth-most points as a pick and roll ball handler among small forwards.
Hayward has been unbelievably efficient in transition, posting a transition points per possession higher than any player with at least 100 transition field goal attempts. His transition Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) of 65.7 percent is a big improvement from his 49.2 percent season eFG%.
The Jazz play at the slowest Pace in the league, and Golden State plays at the second-fastest, so Hayward should be looking at several additional transition scoring opportunities.
Vegas has taken the increase in pace into account, projecting Utah to outscore their season average by two points. Give Hayward a slight bump in value, as he is responsible for more points than any other Utah player this season. He is worthy of both cash game and tournament exposure tonight.
Jose Calderon, PG, New York Knicks
FanDuel Price: $4,400
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Nobody ever wants to roster Jose Calderon. I had a very hard time convincing myself to recommend him, even with the stats staring me in the face.
Point guard isn't as deep as usual, but there are a few pretty chalky options -- John Wall and Ricky Rubio specifically. If looking to punt the position, drafters will likely do so with Juan Jose Barea, not Calderon.
Why You Should Use Him:
Calderon has played well recently, averaging 27.8 FanDuel points in 30.3 minutes over his past four games.
The Mavericks have been average against point guards this season but have really struggled in the past three games without Deron Williams. Now, Williams has never been known as an elite defender, but the guards backing him up make him look like one.
Specifically, Barea ranks as the worst defender in the entire league according to Defensive Real Plus-Minus. In the three games without Williams, Dallas has allowed Stephen Curry, Rajon Rondo, and Emmanuel Mudiay to pile up 125.6 FanDuel points against them, which is 16.4 points above their combined season averages.
This is also a revenge game of sorts for Calderon, who Dallas shipped to New York a few years ago. In one previous meeting with Dallas this season, Calderon put up 30.9 FanDuel points.
It's unlikely Calderon is going to post a 40-plus FanDuel point performance, so he isn't someone I'd be rushing to fit into my tournament lineups. He deserves consideration as a salary saving option tonight though, if it allows you to fit other high-upside studs into your lineup.
Norman Powell, SG, Toronto Raptors
FanDuel Price: $3,900
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Most NBA fans still aren't entirely sure who Norman Powell is, so he isn't likely to be a popular play today, especially if Goran Dragic sits out. If Dragic sits, Wade and Josh Richardson will likely both be popular shooting guard options. Devin Booker is likely going to be a very popular shooting guard option, as well.
Why You Should Use Him:
Powell has been playing big minutes for Toronto recently and has delivered with serviceable fantasy production. He's averaged 24.3 FanDuel points in 33.7 minutes over his past three games and may be in line for heavy minutes again tonight, depending on the health of Terrence Ross. If Ross misses again tonight, expect Powell to easily eclipse 30 minutes of court time.
Powell draws a matchup against the Hawks, who have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season. If he draws the start, he provides a nice value play, which will help fit in some of the top-end options.
