NBA Daily Fantasy (Playoffs) Helper: Monday 4/29/13
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on Apr 29th, 2013
Daily Fantasy: it's not just for the regular season, it's for the playoffs too!
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The Best of the Best
Kevin Durant - I like the concept of point forwards. I like them even more when it's Durant who will constantly have the ball in his hands, leading to instances like Game 3 where Durant takes 30 of his team's 87 shots en route to 41 points. If there is a guy with even the potential of a 15.8 percent total rebound rate, 20.1 percent assist rate, and 36 percent usage rate as Durant had in Game 3, then you take him in a heartbeat. When those numbers are now somewhat expected with all of his roles, and you're playing a team with as quick of a pace as the Rockets, Durant could shatter fantasy records.
Al Horford - I'm not placing too much stock in Indiana's outlier of a performance in Game 3. A .296 effective field goal percentage (eFG%) isn't likely to happen again. I am placing stock, however, in Horford's ability to score, even opposite Roy Hibbert. In the three games so far this series, Horford has not posted less than a 98 offensive rating, even while the rest of his team was floundering. He'll get the ball inside, and there's a great chance he'll score it.
Josh Smith - Why take just one Atlanta big man when you can have them both? Maybe the unstoppable force can move the immovable object: the Hawks have posted at least a 96.5 offensive rating in each of their three games against the Pacers this series, and that lowest value came in a victory. Smith has been a big reason, shooting .553 eFG% and racking up an incredible 29.9 percent assist rate (highest among players who have played at least 10 MPG). Those assists could be the key to another big fantasy game tonight.
Top Mid-Range Values
Devin Harris - Honestly, who are your point guard options today? Not Russell Westbrook. Not Kirk Hinrich. Possibly not Jeremy Lin. George Hill hasn't played exceptionally well these playoffs, either. And Deron Williams is overshadowed by other, more cost-efficient high-priced options. That means I'm staring right at both Harris and Jeff Teague, and it's Harris that we see as a slightly better option. Both his eFG% (by .029) and offensive rating (by two) overshadowed Teague this season, and he comes in at a significantly lower cost across the boards (which more than makes up for the assists deficit).
Patrick Beverley - Flashing neon lights warning: I only want Beverley on my team if Jeremy Lin doesn't play. But as Lin is a game-time call and didn't look too sharp following Game 3, we're expecting Beverley to get a decent run even if Lin does receive limited minutes. During the regular season, Beverley posted a 116 offensive rating and 24.2 percent assist rate in limited minutes. Give him 30 minutes on the floor without Russell Westbrook guarding him, and those rates will yield cost-effective stats tonight.
Gerald Wallace - Maybe Incredible Game 1 Gerald Wallace isn't coming back. But even Game 4 Gerald Wallace still shot .667 eFG% from the field, and for the series, he's at a 10.1 percent total rebound rate. He's absolutely a boom-or-bust candidate, especially considering he will be guarded by the defensively-solid Boozer or Gibson most of the time. With his universal low cost, though, the upside of those potential .667 eFG% games outwieghs the downside of his .313 eFG% Game 3 or his .143 eFG% Game 2.
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In This Article
PG, Dallas Mavericks
SF, Oklahoma City Thunder
SF, Boston Celtics
C, Atlanta Hawks
SF, Detroit Pistons
SG, Houston Rockets