5 Daily Fantasy Basketball Value Plays for 3/2/16
One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays. If you're looking to roster a stud player or two, you'll need to find one of these lower-priced options to squeeze everyone into your lineup.
Let's take a look at five guys -- prices according to FanDuel -- who can help fill the gaps in your lineup tonight. Of course, remember to check our projections closer to tip because so much can change in the NBA throughout the day.
D'Angelo Russell, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
FanDuel Price: $5,300
D'Angelo Russell will be a very chalky play tonight after his outburst against Brooklyn on Tuesday. With a price that just isn't reflective of his role in this offense, there really isn't any reason to move off of him. With his soft pricing, Russell will need just over 26 FanDuel points to return value this evening, a total he's hit in four of the five games since being named a starter.
Expecting the ridiculous output we received from him last night isn't realistic, particularly if Kobe Bryant returns to lineup. While we've seen a fairly drastic split all season in Russell's usage both with and without Bryant on the court -- his Usage Rate has been 26.8% without Bryant as compared to 21.1% without him, per NBAWowy.com -- the Russell we saw last night appeared to be finally embracing more of a leadership role. We'll see if that carries over when sharing the court with Bryant, but last night's monster game shouldn't hurt his confidence any.
The matchup with Denver tonight is above average, with the Nuggets allowing the eighth most FanDuel points to opposing point guards this season. In particular, Emmanuel Mudiay and his sub-par defense -- he carries a Defensive Real Plus-Minus of -1.76, 51st among point guards -- should be very exploitable for Russell.
Expect a price rise in the rookie's future, meaning this may be our last chance to roster to him at this low of a price point for some time.
Will Barton, SG, Denver Nuggets
FanDuel Price: $6,000
The usage of Will Barton on Monday was confounding. Barton's nine shot attempts would have been disappointing in any game this season. However, when we also consider the fact that Danilo Gallinari was absent from the lineup, it becomes particularly concerning.
We're obviously working with a very small sample size, but in the six games Gallinari missed in December, Barton averaged 18 field goal attempts per game. And while we expected some of the usage to be disbursed among others on the team, it is odd to see a player with the offensive capabilities of Barton be so de-emphasized with Denver's leading scorer out of the lineup.
But to be successful in daily fantasy sports, we need to have a short memory, and that's exactly what we're advising here.
Barton gets a cake matchup with a Lakers team that is always exploitable, but may be even more so coming off a big win over the Nets. We saw a lot of their young guys step up with Bryant out of the lineup last night, which could set up for a bit of a letdown. Plus, the Lakers are already allowing the most FanDuel points to opposing shooting guards on the season and the second most over the previous five games.
Expect Barton to get back on track against a Lakers team that struggles to stop opposing wings from scoring in close -- they're near the bottom of the league in field goal attempts allowed and field goal percentage allowed in the paint to opposing wings -- which is an area where Barton takes almost 40% of his shots.
Matt Barnes, SF, Memphis Grizzlies
FanDuel Price: $5,200
Matt Barnes continues to log heavy minutes, with his average now up to over 34 minutes per game since the All-Star Break. The matchup against the Kings is certainly one that can be exploited -- they allow the sixth most FanDuel points to the position -- and play at the league's fastest pace. With Brandan Wright out, expect this rotation to tighten up some, which should help to ensure Barnes continues to see all of the minutes he can handle.
With his price on the rise, he's no longer the "must-play" he was a week or two ago, but there's still sufficient room to squeeze some value out of him at this price point.
Jabari Parker, PF, Milwaukee Bucks
FanDuel Price: $6,000
Indiana has good season averages against opposing power forwards, ranking in the bottom third in terms of fantasy production allowed to the position. With the way Jabari Parker has played of late -- and considering where his price still sits -- it's advisable to have some exposure to him, regardless of matchup.
While the overall numbers stack up well for the Pacers -- they are third in Defensive Efficiency and bottom third in scoring allowed to power forwards -- they've been susceptible to big games from opposing power forwards at times, making Parker a quality tournament option tonight.
Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets
FanDuel Price: $5,500
With a nice over/under of 210.5 and the Lakers allowing the third most FanDuel points to opposing centers, things are finally lining up for Jokic to potentially have a nice outing. The playing time concerns remain, which should limit him to a tournament only option, but he has the ceiling to potentially pay off big against Los Angeles tonight.