NBA Daily Fantasy (Playoffs) Helper: Thursday 4/25/13
- written by
on Apr 25th, 2013
Daily Fantasy: it's not just for the regular season, it's for the playoffs too!
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The Best of the Best
LeBron James - Yawn. Just a .620 effective field goal percentage (.620 eFG%), 24.7 percent defensive rebound rate, and a 34.6 percent assist rate through the first two games of this series. Can you do anything else for me, LeBron? The important thing to note for King James is his minutes: he seems to be blowout proof. Even while Wade and Bosh are averaging about three to five minutes less than average per game because of early blowouts, LeBron has still managed 36.5 minutes per game in the first two Heat contests.
Chris Paul - He's got money in the bank, and don't think the Grizzlies are going to forget it. Paul's actually been more valuable as a passer this series, though. His 39.9 percent assist rate actually drags behind his 46.5 percent season average, and he's still managed a way to grab eight assists per game over the first two contests. Coupled with a Yes This Is Real 154 offensive rating, and I'm riding CP3 for as long as his cost doesn't shoot through the roof.
Carlos Boozer - It seems like Carlos Boozer has been everywhere these playoffs, and yet his 20.5 percent usage rate, 14.1 percent total rebound rate, and 12.5 percent assist rate are actually slightly under his season averages. Sure, he's countered that by shooting better in the playoffs, but the real numbers come from his increase in minutes. If you think his minutes increase from 32.2 MPG during the regular season to 43.5 MPG during the playoffs is more than just a passing fancy - and with Noah hampered, we do - then even a slight regression to the mean in usage and rebound rate could pay huge dividends.
Top Mid-Range Values
Marc Gasol - Two games is an extremely small sample size, but the Daily Fantasy Powers That Be seem to be on board that 6.9 percent total rebound rate Gasol is the real Gasol. I don't buy it. Gasol averaged rebounds on 13.1 percent of total opportunities and 18.9 percent of defensive rebound opportunities this season, numbers that he should regress to shortly. His .385 eFG% - second-worst on the Grizzlies ahead of Tayshaun Prince - is due for an increase to his .494 eFG% season rate as well. Don't trust the small sample size when you have an 80-game sample size with which to compare it.
Ersan Ilyasova - 9 for 14 in Game 2? I'll agree with Ilyasova: his wrist is looking much, much better. Couple that with a 13.2 percent total rebound rate through the first two games (only behind the centers Henson and Sanders), and Ilyasova provides a ton of potential, even against that tough Miami defense. Considering Ilyasova is the only starter averaging over one point per possession so far this series, I only expect his 20.7 percent usage rate to go up, especially as Ellis and Jennings both struggle to reach a .500 eFG%.
Larry Sanders - Or in the Zach Lowe way of putting it, LARRY SANDERS! He may be hobbling around the court looking like he's roughly 60 years old, but he's still managed a 14.7 percent total rebound rate and a .643 effective field goal percentage in two playoff games anyway. By all indications, he'll start tonight. And if I had to have my guess, his block rate will regress to the mean here soon as his injury slowly starts to get better as the series goes on.