An Update on the Golden State Warriors' Chances for 73 Wins
It wasn't even a month ago that I was here talking about whether or not the Warriors would win 73 games this season.
To spare you time, our Chief Analyst, Keith Goldner, calculated that, at the time, the Warriors had just a 2.8 percent chance to make history and reach a record-breaking 73 wins this season. Our algorithms then projected the Warriors to finish with roughly 67 wins, tying their win total from a year ago.
After establishing the unlikeliness of this event, I went on to explore the rigorous beast that was and is the remaining Golden State schedule. In doing so, I touched on the six-game, eight-day road trip the Warriors are now in the middle of.
At the time, I thought that it would be hard for the Warriors to escape absent a loss mainly because the Oklahoma City Thunder awaited them on the very last day of their excursion. What I didn't expect was for them to lose in their very first game back from the All-Star break, in Portland.
But... Damian Lillard (or should I say Dame Dolla) had other plans, going off to the tune of 51 points in a 137-105 victory over the defending champions.
And with that, people around the basketball world started to form the smallest of doubts as to whether or not the Warriors were as foolproof as we thought. So naturally the discussion of the 1995-96 Bulls reappeared at the forefront of NBA conversations.
Did that loss -- a very unexpected loss -- do some serious damage to Stephen Curry and company's chances of catching or surpassing what many consider the greatest team of all time?
Or did last night's win in Atlanta, which made Golden State the quickest team ever to 50 wins in a season, improve their shot at history?
Here's what the algorithms say now:
|2015-16 Golden State Warriors||Chances|
|72 or More Wins (Tie or Break the Record)||10.9%|
|73 or More Wins (Break the Record)||4.2%|
To be honest, there wasn't a ton of damage that could be done. As I previously noted, the Warriors' chances to reach 73 wins stood at 2.8 percent short of a month ago. Their chances to do so -- to break the record -- have certainly increased in the 10 games since. A 9-1 record is almost certain to have that effect.
Yet, considering the teams still to come -- the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers, to name a few -- it couldn't have helped Golden State's chances to lose to a team a mere two games over .500.
In spite of the surprise loss, we still predict the Warriors to total a hair under 69 wins, which would be an improvement of two wins from a season ago.
Is that enough to satisfy a team with an appetite to prove themselves once again? We'll be sure to find out in the coming weeks as they continue to chase greatness.