Daily Fantasy Basketball Stats Watch: The Return of Derrick Rose
When Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose reached the peak of his game, it was hard not to get excited.
From 2009-10 through 2011-12, Rose was a three-time NBA All-Star and averaged 22.3 points, 6.9 assists, 3.7 rebounds, and 0.9 steals per 36 minutes while shooting 46% from the field and 32% from beyond the arc.
In the three seasons since, he's averaging 19.7 points, 5.6 assists, 3.9 boards, and 0.8 steals per 36. Not too far off, sure, but that's not really the issue. He's shooting just 40.6% from the field and 28.4% from three-point range the past three seasons. Making matters worse, he's attempted 4.5 threes per 36 minutes in the past three seasons, compared to 3.1 during his All-Star stretch.
In fairness, he averaged 4.6 and 4.5 threes per 36 minutes in 2010-11 and 2011-12, respectively, but it's taken a while for Rose, who has battled seemingly countless injuries, to return to form.
If the past three weeks are any indication, he might be trending back to his old ways.
Who else should we be eyeing?
Up: In the past three weeks (about eight games for most teams because of the All-Star break), Raul Neto has averaged 28.9 minutes per game for the Utah Jazz, who are 6-2 in that stretch. That's an 8.3 minute-per-game boost for the guard relative to his season average. Jabari Parker has seen an 8-minute bump himself, averaging a whopping 37.5 minutes per game in February, the 12th-most of any player. Jamal Crawford has averaged 34.5 minutes for the Clippers, who are 4-3 in this span. That's a 7.8-minute jump for the shooting guard, who averages 26.7 minutes per game on the year.
Down: In six February games, Rudy Gay is averaging 30.2 minutes, which is a 3.2 minute-per-game dip from his season average. He topped 40 minutes in back-to-back games in his past two, but playing just 30 minutes in two games before that has made his mark look worse than it really has been. Hassan Whiteside managed to score 25 points and 23 rebounds in 29 minutes off the bench against the Wizards last time out, but the Heat big man has averaged just 23.2 minutes per game in five February contests. He can sure fill it up even off the bench, but you'll have to be mindful of his playing 17 or fewer minutes, which he's done in two of his five games this month.
Up: Kobe Bryant has experienced the biggest uptick in points per game of players with 20 minutes per game both this month and on the season. He's scored 25.2 points per game in February, up 8.1 from his season average of 17.1. Archie Goodwin has some lineup issues to deal with, but he has managed 16.9 points per game this month while shooting 2.9 percentage points better from the floor, 5.1 points better from three, and 17.2 points better from the free-throw line relative to his season averages. Derrick Rose is scoring 5.3 more points this month (21.6) than his season average (16.3). He's also got a 5.3 percentage-point boost in Usage Rate, which has been 32.3% this month, the second-biggest jump of qualified players.
Down: Draymond Green is down 2.5 points per game from his season average and has scored 11.7 points per game this month. He's shooting 4.3 percentage points better from the floor than he has the rest of the season, but he's down 3.1 field goal attempts per game in this stretch, meaning he's hoisting only 7.2 shots per game this month. Worse, he's attempted 1.9 fewer threes per game, shooting just 1.3 from beyond the arc per contest. Ryan Anderson has averaged 12.3 points per game this month, a 4.4-point dip from his season average. His Usage Rate is basically unchanged, but his Effective Field Goal Percentage has declined 9 percentage points. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has logged heavy minutes for Detroit this season but has managed 30.2 per game in his four games this month, down 6.6 minutes per game. That combined with a 16.1 percentage-point decline in Effective Field Goal Percentage has given him the largest point decline of anyone who qualified at 4.9 points below his season average.
Up: Aaron Gordon has hauled in 10.5 boards per game this month, up 4.2 from his season average. His Defensive Rebounding Rate is up 4.7 percentage points, too. Robin Lopez has seen similar numbers. He's up to 10.7 per game this month, a 4.1 rebound-per-game boost. He can thank a 4.9-point boost to his Offensive Rebounding Rate and a 3-point jump in his Defensive Rebounding Rate, but be wary of the dependence on offensive boards. Evan Turner has added 2.1 rebounds per game compared to his season total this month, hauling in 6.8 per game in February. He's up 5.9 percentage points in Defensive Rebounding Rate and 3.8 percent in Rebounding Rate.
Down: LaMarcus Aldridge has seen a 1.5 rebound-per-game decline this month, and his Rebounding Rates are down across the board. He's down 2.8 percentage points on the offensive glass, 4.7 on defense, and 3.8 overall, relative to his season averages. Al Horford has managed 5.9 rebounds per game this month, down a full board from his season average. He's also down across the board: 3.2 percent on offense, 2 on defense, and 2.6 overall. He's playing 1.9 more minutes than his season average this month, but he's not rebounding at the same rate as usual. Kevin Love has declined in a lot of areas since the start of the month. He's playing 1.6 fewer minutes per game, grabbing 1.4 fewer rebound, and has lost 3.6 percentage points, 1.3, and 2.3 on his Offensive, Defensive, and Total Rebound Rates.
Up: Archie Goodwin has averaged 5.1 assists this month, up from 2.3 on the full season. Of course, he's playing bigger minutes, but his Assist Rate is up 6.7 percentage points. He's still just 35th in the measure this month (25.2%), but he's a situation to watch for sure. DeMarcus Cousins has averaged 5 helpers per game, up 1.9 from his season average. His Assist Rate is up 6.2 percentage points this month. Nerlens Noel has basically doubled his assist average from the year (1.6) this month (3.3), and his Assist Rate is up 9 percentage points. That should scream regression.
Down: Darren Collison has managed 2.3 helpers per game this month, down 1.6 from his season average. His Assist Rate is down 8.5 percentage points. Reggie Jackson's Assist Rate is down 5.9 percentage points, and he's seen a 1.3 assists-per-game decline in his past seven games.
Up: Jamal Crawford, who averages 19.3 FanDuel points per game has averaged more than 10 extra fantasy points this month. Kobe Bryant (27.4), Derrick Rose (26.8), and Robin Lopez (21.2) are all seeing jumps of at least 9 FanDuel points per contest. While Raul Neto's minutes are up, he has averaged 17.6 FanDuel points per game this month, which is barely enough to make value at minimum salary.
Down: In addition to his efficiency woes, Ryan Anderson has dipped 7.4 FanDuel points per game this month, mustering just over 18 per contest. Draymond Green is down 4.7 FanDuel points per game, to 34 per contest. Dallas Mavericks Wesley Matthews and Zaza Pachulia have each dipped recently. Matthews is down 3.2 FanDuel points per game to 16.5 this month, and Pachulia is down 2.8 to just over 20 per contest in February.