3 Daily Fantasy Basketball Value Plays for 2/11/16
One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays. If you're looking to roster a stud player or two, you'll need to find one of these lower-priced options to squeeze everyone into your lineup.
Let's take a look at three guys who can help fill the gaps in your lineup tonight. Of course, remember to check our projections closer to tip because so much can change in the NBA throughout the day.
Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Milwaukee Bucks
FanDuel Price: $6,300
On such a small slate, a big topic of discussion will certainly be head coach Jason Kidd's decision to bench Greg Monroe and Michael Carter-Williams. Let's examine how Carter-Williams has fared as a reserve so far this season.
Per NBAwowy.com, Carter-Williams spent only 17.7% of his court time with the starting unit on Tuesday. His move to the bench resulted in a boost to his Usage Rate from 21.3% to 22.3%. Carter-Williams has proven that he can be productive in a reserve role, with six games of 30-plus FanDuel points while coming off the bench this season.
Assuming Carter-Williams will continue to see the majority of his minutes with the reserve unit, he should be able to mostly avoid the defense of John Wall and take advantage of an easier matchup against Ramon Sessions, who ranks 57th among point guards in Defensive Real-Plus Minus.
This is also a huge pace-up game for Carter-Williams, as Milwaukee ranks 24th in Pace, while Washington ranks 4th. Carter-Williams has topped 35 FanDuel points 15 times this season. 13 of those 15 games have been played against teams who rank in the top 14 in Pace.
Milwaukee also has the second highest projected team total on the slate, as Vegas has them projected for 106.3 points, which is 8.2 points higher than their season average.
Enes Kanter, C, Oklahoma City Thunder
FanDuel Price: $5,100
Oklahoma City has a projected team total of 116, which is easily the highest on the slate. They are projected to outscore their season average by 6.1 points. The Thunder are also double-digit favorites in this one, which bodes well for their backup center, Enes Kanter. In 22 games that they were listed as double-digit favorites this season, Kanter has averaged 0.7 more minutes and 1.7 more FanDuel points per game.
Kanter's minutes have been as inconsistent as ever recently, as he's averaged just 21 per game over the past six Thunder games. He's also continued to be ridiculously productive on a per-minute basis, averaging 27.2 FanDuel points per game during that span. He's shown huge upside during that span too, with three games of over 32 FanDuel points, all of which he double-doubled in.
He draws a perfect matchup tonight, as New Orleans not only has allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing centers but also has no center that poses an offensive threat. The reason Kanter sees limited minutes is that he is a complete liability on defense. In Kanter's last game against the Pelicans, he put up 39.8 FanDuel points, his highest point total of the season. In four games against New Orleans over the past two seasons, Kanter has averaged 30.7 FanDuel points.
New Orleans also has allowed the eighth most points against the post-up this season, per NBA.com. The Pelicans are ranked 23rd in Rebounding Rate and 27th in Defensive Efficiency. Kanter should be able to take advantage, and you can get him at a significant discount.
Jared Dudley, PF, Washington Wizards
FanDuel Price: $4,600
Jared Dudley comes into this game in good form, averaging 22.9 FanDuel points per game over his past seven, while playing 29 minutes per game. At his price, he has hit five-times value in five of his past seven games.
The Bucks play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, which will scare many daily fantasy players off of Washington players, as they are the only team who is significantly slowing their pace. You shouldn't be scared by the fact that Milwaukee plays at a slow pace though. The reason they try to slow the pace is that they are the least efficient team at defending transition. Per NBA.com, the Bucks have allowed the most points per possession in transition and the highest score frequency in transition.
Dudley has scored 1.24 points per possession in transition, the second most of any Washington player this season. Dudley has also maintained a 51.4 field goal percentage and a 67.9 Effective Field Goal Percentage, which is the second highest on the team. Those marks are 2.5% and 7.3% above his respective season averages.
In three games against Milwaukee this season, Dudley has averaged 23.93 FanDuel points per game while shooting 57.9% from the field and 63.6% from the three-point line with an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 80%. His success isn't surprising considering Milwaukee has allowed the most fantasy points of any team on this slate and is particularly bad at defending the positions Dudley plays. The Bucks have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing small forwards and the sixth most to power forwards.