3 Daily Fantasy Basketball Players to Avoid on 2/9/16
You can find a ton of great information and research on guys you might want to include in your DFS NBA lineups tonight, but what about some guys you may want to lessen your exposure to, or even fade altogether?
Avoiding players whose matchups or situations aren't as great as they seem can often be just as important as finding the best targets each night. After all, it takes only one player to sink a lineup.
With a small slate of NBA games on tonight, searching for the landmines could mean the difference from winning or losing your contests.
Goran Dragic, PG, Miami Heat
FanDuel Price: $5,700
It’s hard to argue with the results that Goran Dragic has been seeing recently, as he has put up big numbers against two pretty good point guard defenses in his last two games. While the NBA and DFS communities don’t tend to label Tony Parker as a great individual defender, the Spurs’ team defense against point guards has been pretty good this season. The Spurs rank fifth in the league currently in defense against point guards, and with the pace that this game will likely be played at, these factors make Dragic a potential landmine tonight after two straight good games.
Miami and San Antonio both play at Paces of 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes or slower, so the likelihood of there being plenty of shots to go around for this game are very slim. On top of that, the Spurs have been limiting their opponents to 40 percent from the floor or worse outside of five feet this season. With Dragic taking 70 percent of his shots outside of three feet from the basket, it could be an off night for the Miami point guard after two straight games of hitting value.
In his last three games against the Spurs, whether it was a member of the Heat or Suns, Dragic is averaging fewer than 20 FanDuel points per game. In this matchup and coming off the good games, Dragic could end up costing you tonight.
Chandler Parsons, SF, Dallas Mavericks
FanDuel Price: $6,700
Chasing points in DFS in any sport can get you in trouble, so anyone who looks at Chandler Parsons' game log and sees that he dropped 42.6 FanDuel points against the Grizzlies a few nights ago will surely be jumping on Parsons tonight. However, we correctly labeled him a landmine in his game before that against the Spurs, and he has made his return to the landmine realm tonight with his matchup against Gordon Hayward.
Hayward does not get the credit he deserves for being a good defender. The Jazz team defense helps some too, but Hayward has the Jazz as the second toughest small forward defense in the NBA, and this season Hayward is limiting players he defends to shooting only 37.3 percent from beyond 15 feet. Compare that to last season’s Defensive Player of the Year, Kawhi Leonard's mark of 36.9 percent this year, and you can see that Hayward is a very good perimeter defender.
Parsons has already put up one dud against the Jazz this season when he had only 12.4 FanDuel points. Parsons is also averaging about one fewer fantasy point per game at home this season compared to the road, and considering his price and recent game, he has re-entered landmine territory tonight. While most players tend to thrive when they have had more than one day off in between games, in games where Parsons is coming off of more than one full day’s rest this season, he is also averaging fewer than 20 FanDuel points.
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, San Antonio Spurs
FanDuel Price: $7,300
A recent string of consistency has increased LaMarcus Aldridge's price to well above the $7,000 mark tonight against the Heat. However, while Aldridge has been impressive over the Spurs’ last four games, there are several factors tonight that could place him in the landmine category. For starters, his recent four games are probably the first time he has strung together consistent value all season. Secondly, Tim Duncan has recently been upgraded to questionable, and if he plays that could steal some of Aldridge’s touches and room to operate in the post against a very good Heat defense.
According to NBA Wowy, with Duncan off the court this season, Aldridge has an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 51.1 percent, and he is averaging 1.15 points per possession (a 115 Offensive Rating). Compare that to when Duncan plays and Aldridge’s averages drop to 48.6 percent and 1.09 points per possession.
Combine the possibility of a Duncan return with the fact that to the Heat allowing the second fewest fantasy points against power forwards this season, and you have a landmine waiting to happen. This will be the first time Aldridge has faced the Heat as a member of the Spurs, but considering the Heat are holding power forwards to fewer than 40 FanDuel points per 48 minutes this season, rostering Aldridge in anything other than a tournament is asking for trouble.