Have you ever seen a metrics, an NBA player must play at least 1500 minutes to qualify for their year-end turnover rate rankings. I could go out there and make one pass in one minute played; it doesn't make me court-aware. Novak, however, qualifies... barely. With five Knicks games left in the season, Steve Novak has played exactly Fifteen Hundred and Three (1503) minutes. Take that qualifiers!
With a turnover rate that low, you would have to figure that Novak would be among the best turnover rates of All-Time. And in that aspect, you'd be correct. In fact, future generations who have no idea who Steve Novak actually is may look back and see a legendary figure in the making. I find this fact hilarious too.
But the facts are facts: Novak's 2.4 percent turnover rate doesn't just break the All-Time record, it shatters it by over one percent. Never before has a single player finished with even twice as many turnovers in at least 1500 minutes played. And for that, Novak doesn't deserve an award, but at least some recognition as the epitome of the newest type of NBA player.
Why is This Happening?
Steve Novak is about to take over an actual NBA record currently held by Four Factors, offensive turnover rate can account for roughly 12.5 percent of a team's eventual chances of winning. In this regard, Novak, and the Knicks as a whole, are masters. The Knicks' current 11.8 percent offensive turnover rate sits first in the NBA, and only two teams in the past three seasons (last year's 76ers and the '09-10 Hawks) can claim to have done better.
But a low-turnover rate cannot account for everything. Novak has a specific job on the court: shoot, and shoot well. And this season, with easily the most playing time in his career, he has still done that effectively. His .598 effective field goal percentage (eFG%), which weights three-point shots differently from two-point shots, would still sit third in the NBA if Novak had enough shots to qualify. His 127 offensive rating, which measures a player's points scored per 100 possessions, would sit second behind fellow potential record-breaker and teammate Tyson Chandler.
It's not all sunshine and daisies, however. Defense is merely an option for Mr. Novak. The Knicks aren't exactly a solid team on defense, allowing an 18th-best 106.3 points per 100 possessions. Novak, though, is even worse: his 110 individual defensive rating sits as the highest on the entire Knicks team. This isn't surprising considering his skill set, but his defensive liability is still worth mentioning as a downside to his game.
So when you put the full package together, what do you get? Well, according to our nERD Power Rankings, Steve Novak is the No. 48 most valuable player in the NBA this season. No, you haven't read that incorrectly. His 3.1 nERD ranking means that a .500 team would add roughly three wins with Novak as one of its starters. That's more than Kyrie Irving, Roy Hibbert, or Dirk Nowitzki based on this season's play. That's some incredible play from a mid-rotation guy like Novak.
In fact, the Knicks would do well to give him more playing time in the playoffs. Forward Amar'e Stoudemire only holds a 2.8 nERD rating, with many more rebounds but also many more turnovers and worse shooting. Fellow small forward Iman Shumpert can't hold a candle with his -0.1 nERD rating. And even J.R. Smith and his 33.5 minutes per game aren't as efficient due to a 1.8 nERD rating, .480 eFG%, and a still-great-but-not-Novak 9.1 percent turnover rate.
Novak may have only one job on the court, but arguably, he's done it better than some of the Korvers and Kaponos and Redicks before him. This is historic for Novak, and even if it's not an earth-shattering record, his lack of turnovers is still worth mentioning, as it points to a shift in basketball philosophy among NBA front offices.