NBA Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 3/4/13
After a few days at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, it's nice to get back in the saddle with our NBA Daily Fantasy games. Once again, it's time to use the power of numberFire analytics to get ahead.
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as DraftStreet and FanDuel as well. So once again, we're not only going to give you one, but three optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader.
As you can see, there are some minor differences between the rosters. That has to do with two key components: the position restrictions on each site, and the different player pricing system on the sites as well. We've plugged this data into our player projection system, and we've come up with the best overall values for your Daily Fantasy team on each platform today.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
| Player | Position | Projected FP | Cost | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | F | 47.15 | $18,500 | 2.55 |
| Josh Smith | F | 38.65 | $14,800 | 2.61 |
| Dwyane Wade | G | 38.8 | $14,000 | 2.77 |
| Kyrie Irving | G | 36.33 | $13,500 | 2.69 |
| Amir Johnson | C-F | 25.5 | $8,900 | 2.87 |
| Kyle Korver | G | 22.73 | $8,000 | 2.84 |
| Carl Landry | F | 21.18 | $7,600 | 2.79 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | F | 20.95 | $7,500 | 2.79 |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | F | 17.33 | $6,300 | 2.75 |
DraftStreet Optimized Roster
| Player | Position | Projected FP | Cost | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade | G | 34.98 | $18,496 | 1.89 |
| Josh Smith | F | 34.33 | $16,486 | 2.08 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | F | 32.88 | $14,968 | 2.20 |
| Chris Bosh | C | 28.55 | $12,553 | 2.27 |
| J.R. Smith | G | 25.45 | $11,496 | 2.21 |
| Danilo Gallinari | F | 22.75 | $9,234 | 2.46 |
| Robin Lopez | C | 21.73 | $8,768 | 2.48 |
| Jarrett Jack | G | 23.9 | $7,518 | 3.18 |
Fan Duel Optimized Roster
| Player | Position | Projected FP | Cost | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | SF | 43.5 | $9,900 | 4.39 |
| Josh Smith | PF | 35.3 | $9,100 | 3.88 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | PF | 34.4 | $8,300 | 4.14 |
| J.R. Smith | SF | 27.5 | $6,300 | 4.37 |
| Chris Bosh | C | 29.2 | $6,300 | 4.63 |
| Raymond Felton | PG | 26.2 | $5,600 | 4.68 |
| Eric Gordon | SG | 21.4 | $5,300 | 4.04 |
| Jarrett Jack | PG | 23.1 | $5,200 | 4.44 |
| Ray Allen | SG | 16.8 | $3,900 | 4.31 |
The Best of the Best
LeBron James - Come on, he's LeBron. Even with a swollen knee, he still finished with 29 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists against the Knicks last night. Sure, his knee may slow him down a tiny bit. Then again, a partially-slowed down LeBron still could probably make the roster of Space Jam's Monstars. Going against a Minnesota squad that has allowed opposing small forwards to shoot a .525 effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and has Andrei Kirilenko riding the pine for this game should shoot his value up even higher.
Josh Smith - The Denver Nuggets may be dead-average in defensive efficiency - their 105.9 points allowed per 100 possessions sits 14th - but even efficient defense will yield big point totals if you're running a track meet. The Nuggets have the second-quickest pace in the NBA this year at 95.0 possessions per 48 minutes; when coupled with Atlanta's not-half-bad 13th-ranked pace, there is the opportunity for plenty of points and rebounds in this one. Josh Smith should be the biggest beneficiary, seeing some potential put-backs against Denver's 26th-ranked defensive rebound percentage.
LaMarcus Aldridge - And as the lucky winner of our nightly "Who's playing Sacramento or Charlotte" Watch, we have Aldridge and the Trail Blazers! Sure, Charlotte could possibly play well defensively; I could also sprout a third leg. Odds are, though, neither of those will happen: the Bobcats have not allowed a team to have an offensive rating under 112 since February 19. That six game streak includes fierce opponents as, well, Detroit and Sacramento. I have a hard time discerning why Aldridge and his team-leading 26.1 percent usage rate would be different.
Top Mid-Range Values
J.R. Smith - Just for fun, here are the last three shooting guards to play at least 25 minutes against the Cleveland Cavaliers:
1. Jamal Crawford - 24 points, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, 137 offensive rating.
2. DeMar DeRozan - 34 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 122 offensive rating.
3. Dwyane Wade - 24 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 112 offensive rating.
Yeah, let's just say that I'm exciting for Smith's upside tonight.
Chris Bosh - With The Human Outlet Pass still on the bench and both AK47 and Nikola Pekovic doubtful for tonight's game, who exactly is going to guard Chris Bosh in the post? Greg Stiemsma? Derrick Williams? Hologram Tupac? I think all of them would have about the same success: very little. Bosh is the best value in Fan Duel formats - his 4.63 FP to cost ratio is the second-highest overall today - but he can provide solid fantasy points no matter what format you're playing in. And with Minnesota's 11th-quickest pace, there should be enough opportunities for the Big Three to all get their numbers.
Jarrett Jack - In two games in March, Jack has averaged 4.0 points and 18 percent shooting through two games. But you know what, Jack fans? Say it with me now: Regression to the mean! Sure, his four straight games with at least 19 points following the All-Star Break may be tough to replicate. But playing the Raptors and their 25th-ranked defensive rating, .494 eFG% allowed to opposing point guards, and Rudy Gay's questionable status gives him a solid opportunity to rack up both the points and assists. Take advantage of his low cost before it shoots back up.
