Heading into the NBA Finals against a Cavaliers team without #NBAFinals is tied 1-1 has gone on to win the series 31 of 37 times (83.8% of the time) (via @EliasSports)
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) June 10, 2015So what can the Warriors do to get the odds back in their favor? Let's take a look at three areas after Game 3's loss.
Pick Up the Pace
The Warriors had the fastest pace in the NBA in the regular season at 100.69. In other words, the Warriors were getting an average of 100 possessions per 48 minutes of game play, and that played a big part in why they led the league in points per game in the regular season (110 per game). However, in the NBA Finals, the Warriors' pace has been halted.
| Reg. Season | v. Pelicans | v. Grizzlies | v. Rockets | v. Cavaliers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | 100.69 | 94.64 | 94.00 | 101.42 | 93.74 |
The Warriors' pace dipped against the Pelicans and Grizzlies, but the pace in the Finals could be more worrisome. With a loss of seven possessions per 48 minutes plus a 47.1 percent Effective Field Goal percentage that is 6.9 points lower than their regular season mark (another category they led the league in), each possession is proving to be even more valuable.
Protect the Ball
Not only are the Warriors losing more possessions per game and not shooting as well as we'd expect but also they're also turning the ball over more each game. It's not at an alarming rate, but it's still cause for concern.
| Reg. Season | v. Pelicans | v. Grizzlies | v. Rockets | v. Cavaliers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TO Ratio | 14.4 | 12.6 | 18.3 | 15.2 | 15.4 |
| TO/Game | 14.5 | 12.0 | 16.8 | 14.4 | 14.7 |
The Cavaliers aren't forcing turnovers at the rate the Grizzlies were, but we're looking at a full turnover more (per 100 possessions) for the Warriors in comparison to the regular season. Three forces are limiting the Warriors right now: low possessions, even lower shooting percentage and an increase in turnovers. The Warriors need a quick fix and one guy from Game 3 could provide the change needed the rest of the series.
Pick and Roll With Lee
NBA.com's stats page, we can see that Lee was also the second best in Score Frequency for the team this season. Lee made a huge difference in the game for the 13 minutes he played in Game 3 (his first action of the Finals), allowing the Warriors to claw back into the game.
After Game 1, it seemed like a forgone conclusion that the Warriors would run away with the Finals. However, their chances have been reduced significantly after losing their second straight game. They are still the favorites, but it's as slim as ever. An increased pace and some sprinkling in of David Lee could be the best recipe for the Warriors to get back into this series.