NBA Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 1/30/13
From yesterday's roster, the top of the charts did well (have to love trusting the Blazers bigs), but the bottom of the charts not so much (where did you go Dunleavy and Gee?). But we're back to do it again, with a boatload of players today to choose from.
Through the power of Math!, we've optimized the best possible roster for your Daily Fantasy needs, using the cost figures and scoring system from our friends at StarStreet as a guide.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. But I'm here to break down the best of the best and tell you why they're so valuable.
The numberFire Optimized Roster
Blake Griffin - With Chris Paul out, there aren't too many other places the Clippers can turn for points. Griffin's definitely taken advantage recently - he has at least 23 points in four of his past five games. Playing the Timberwolves, who are 22nd in defensive effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and still don't have Kevin Love should help too.
Joakim Noah - The Milwaukee Bucks are a team without many weaknesses, but one is clearly defensive rebounding. At only 70.8 percent of available opportunities (28th), the put-back scoring potential is high for Noah tonight. And that wouldn't stray from the norm; he's had at least five offensive rebounds in four straight games.
Paul Pierce - Fresh off his seventh career triple-double against Miami, Pierce should have an even easier time going against the swiss cheese defense of Sacramento. Dead last in defensive rating (111.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) and 26th in defensive eFG%, the Kings are an easy mark for Pierce, even without Rondo dishing to him.
Brook Lopez - With Bosh playing center for Miami, the matchup isn't the greatest tonight. However, seeing Lopez dip all the way down to $11,900 due to a recent string of rebounding troubles is just too juicy to pass up. Those rebounds should be rectified tonight, as Miami is 28th in offensive rebounding percentage and 19th in defensive rebounding percentage.
J.R. Smith - It should all be on Smith's shoulders tonight; opposing shooting guard J.J. Redick has a 111 defensive rating, the highest on the Orlando team. That's saying something, considering Orlando as a whole has the 24th defensive rating in the NBA and the dead-last defensive turnover percentage at 11.5 percent of possessions.
Tyson Chandler - Tyson Chandler hasn't been playing like an All-Star starter recently; he has just one double-digit scoring affair in his past seven games. But the Magic should be a good way to break that streak. They're allowing opposing centers to shoot .516 eFG% from the field, .020 higher than any other position on the floor.
Spencer Hawes - Washington is surprisingly strong defensively, especially at point guard, small forward, and power forward. See one of the positions suspiciously left off the list? Yes, center. The Wizards are allowing opposing centers to shoot .501 eFG% from the field and collect 15.6 rebounds total per game. Hawes, who has played 35 minutes in three of his past four games, should benefit nicely.
Raymond Felton - Oh no, we're not done with the Knicks train against the Magic quite yet. Still a bargain at $8,800, Felton is one of those players that you should get on board with before their value shoots back up. In his past two games, Felton has put up 29 and 38 minutes; play time shouldn't be an issue. As I already said, the Magic have forced the lowest turnover percentage in the league. And Felton had 12 points and 10 assists in his last contest against much tougher Atlanta.
Jamal Crawford - Well, if Blake Griffin's shouldering most of the load scoring-wise with Chris Paul out, then it stands to reason that Jamal Crawford is person No. 2 in line for points. And that's a good thing tonight, as the Timberwolves have struggled on defense recently. In their past two games against Washington and Charlotte, they allowed 114 and 102 points, respectively. If Washington and Charlotte can do that, what will Lob City and their fourth-ranked offensive rating do?
Your medium-sized sleeper of the day is Eric Bledsoe of the Los Angeles Clippers. With Paul out, his replacement becomes a bargain at less than $10k. Bledsoe has played at least 30 minutes in each of the Clippers' past four games, and there's no reason to see that changing tonight. And considering Minnesota's 23rd-ranked offensive turnover rate and .490 defensive eFG% against point guards, both steals and points should be on the table for Bledsoe in bunches.
Your deep sleeper of the day is Kris Humphries of the Brooklyn Nets. Remember that whole "Miami can't rebound" thing that looks to help Brook Lopez? Apply that lesson here as well. And with Miami allowing opposing power forwards to shoot .506 eFG% (highest of any position), some points could be on the table for Humphries as well. But will the playing time? That's the risk you take by selecting a $6,700 option.
Stay away from Paul George of the Pacers today. There are many ways to attack the Pistons, but small forward is not one of them: opposing SFs are shooting .454 eFG% against them this season. Couple that with a game between two slow-paced teams (Detroit's 25th and Indiana's 27th), and there won't be many opportunities available for the All-Star.
The game to watch today is Knicks/Magic. Well, we sure had enough Knicks on our optimized roster today, but which ones will be the stars? And will any Magic players (such as J.J. Redick) be able to keep pace? On a day filled with tons of basketball, it should be a fun one at the Garden.