NBA Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 1/25/13
Need proof that our optimized lineups are dominating the competition? Last night, Chief Analyst Keith Goldner used the numberFire lineup and dominated with 299.5 FP gained. StarStreet founder and CEO Jeremy Levine, meanwhile, finished with 265.75. And that's the second night in a row that we dominated - our optimized roster posted 290.25 FP on the 23rd.
And we keep on moving on. Through the power of Math!, we've optimized the best possible roster for your Daily Fantasy needs, using the cost figures and scoring system from our friends at StarStreet as a guide.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. But I'm here to break down the best of the best and tell you why they're so valuable.
The numberFire Optimized Roster
Kevin Durant - He's always going to be strong, but matchups don't get much better than this. The Kings are dead-last in defensive rating and defensive rebounding percentage, 28th in defensive free-throw factor (FT/FGA), 26th in opponent effective field goal percentage (eFG%), and their worst position in terms of net Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is small forward. It's time for Durant to go wild Thunder-style.
Dwyane Wade - I don't know what it is, but Wade always seems criminally underrated; this is the third straight Heat game in which he has appeared on our optimized roster. But you might as well continue to take advantage - Wade is averaging 31 points, 6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists over his past two games against the Lakers and Raptors.
Paul Millsap - The question with Millsap is usually whether he'll get his points to justify a mediocre points total. But I'm not so sure that his point total will be mediocre today, as the Lakers have allowed opposing power forwards to shoot .507 eFG% from the field and have the second-fastest pace in the league, meaning plenty of opportunities for the Jazz.
O.J. Mayo - At least 15 points in six of his past seven games, coupled with an average 5.7 assists and 4.7 rebounds over that same span? For $10,600? Yes please. Having him face a Spurs squad that is allowing opposing shooting guards to shoot .481 eFG% from the floor, the second-highest eFG% the Spurs are allowing at any position behind center, is only icing on the cake.
Anthony Davis - Before Wednesday's nine points against San Antonio, the Brow had hit double-digit points in five straight games, with at least one block in each of those games and an average of 8.6 rebounds per game over that same span. Couple that with a Houston team that loves to run (fastest pace in the league) and not collect offensive rebounds (20th offensive rebound percentage), and Davis will have a good opportunity to do some of each.
Larry Sanders - What do you get when the leading NBA player in block percentage at 9.2 percent of all opportunities faces off against the team that has been blocked the third-most in the league? Let's just say that the fans in the first couple rows better watch out for ball being swatted their way. Helping Sanders even further is that there should be plenty of rebound opportunities - the Cavs are 25th in eFG% but have the 12th fastest pace in the NBA.
Luke Ridnour - When Alexey Shved is away, then Ridnour will play. Normally a point guard, Ridnour has been playing opposite Ricky Rubio at starting shooting guard while Shved remains injured. So far, the experiment has been going well for those who place their trust in Ridnour, as he's posted four straight games of at least 30 minutes played and 12 points on the board. I don't see either of those trends changing against Washington and the Wizards' .509 eFG% allowed to opposing shooting guards (the highest of any position).
Dion Waiters - It may be an odd time to start Waiters, as the Bucks are only allowing opposing shooting guards to shoot .427 eFG% from the field. But as long as he keep hoisting up shots, then he will remain a good value at a low price. Waiters attempts the second-most shots and third-most free throws per game for Cleveland, and given that both teams are top-12 in pace, something has to go in eventually. Right?
Bradley Beal - In the middle of January, Beal had a streak where he scored at least 16 points in five straight games; since then, he's averaged 9 over his last three games. But all that's done is bring his value back down to a more manageable level, and going against the already-mentioned Ridnour and his 107 defensive rating could be just the remedy Beal needs. At the very least, opponents are shooting .541 eFG% against Ridnour at his limited minutes at SG so far this season.
Your medium-sized sleeper of the day is Chandler Parsons of the Houston Rockets. Sure, $10,300 may seem expensive for Parsons. But that's until you remember that Parsons is the starting small forward, getting significant minutes and sitting second on Houston in points per game behind James Harden. And then you remember that tonight's opponent it the Hornets, who are allowing opposing small forwards to shoot .530 eFG%, the highest of any position on a team that is already 28th in opponents' eFG% as it is.
Your deep sleeper of the day is Jordan Crawford of the Washington Wizards. He's going to get back to 30 minutes per game at some point; it's just a matter of when. But even if he doesn't and stays consistent at the 22.5 minutes he's averaged over the last two games, a projected 13.1 points, 3.8 assists, and 3.0 rebounds isn't bad for somebody who's only going to cost you only $6,000.
Stay away from David Lee of the Warriors today. Lee may be on a hot streak recently (the reason his cost is $15,800), but can he stand facing a Bulls defense that is fourth in defensive rating, second in opponents' eFG%, sixth in offensive rebounding percentage, and is only allowing opposing power forwards to shoot .451 eFG% from the field? I wouldn't take my chances.
The game to watch today is Thunder/Kings. How high can Durant and Westbrook's stock rise? If I had to take one, it's Durant who I think is going to blow up. But those two, along with Kevin Martin, could be do for some big point totals against that pitiful, dead-last defensive rating Sacramento/Seattle Kings/Sonics team.