After yet another knee surgery, this time to repair a torn meniscus, nERD is our in-house metric that determines how many wins or losses an average team would be above .500 with a given player as a starter. Essentially, Rose’s score indicates the Bulls would be about four games below .500 if the rest of the lineup was “replacement-level.”

Excluding 2013-2014, when Rose played only 10 games, Rose’s stat line from this year (specifically efficiency wise) has been one of his worst. Excluding 2013-2014, his PER of 16.0, his true shooting percentage of 49.4, his Win Shares per 48 minutes of 0.040, and his Offensive Rating of 98 are all the lowest of his career.

In addition, although his three-point attempt rate of .324 is the highest of his career (he’s shooting 5.4 three-pointers per game this season), he’s only converting on them at a dismal clip of 27.9 percent.

In some circles, it seems that the presence of Rose in the Bulls lineup is the difference in whether or not the Bulls are legitimate contenders. However, the numbers show that Rose has a minimal effect on the Bulls, both offensively and defensively. Here are the Offensive and Defensive Rating splits with Rose on and off the court this season as well as the winning percentage from games he either played in or missed.

Across the board, the Bulls don’t have much drop off in efficiency, on-either side of the ball. However, one place where Rose’s presence in the lineup matters: wins and losses.

Without Rose, the Bulls are just better than a .500 team, posting a record of 17-14 in his absence. With Rose, the Bulls are 31-18. Additionally, when the Bulls have all five of their starters healthy (Rose, Butler, March 31, 2015

Mirotic had been performing at an elite rate early in the season, but after finally being given extended minutes, Mirotic has flourished for the Bulls. In addition to his raw totals, Mirotic has maintained a true shooting percentage of 55.1 and an excellent individual Offensive Rating of 110.

Mirotic currently has a nERD score of 4.3, the highest of any rookie in the league, and a score high enough to rank him 38th amongst all players in the NBA. If Mirotic can continue his efficient production throughout the playoffs, the Bulls may have enough firepower to make a run at the championship, especially with Rose back in the lineup.

With teammates Pau Gasol and Jimmy Butler -- who boast nERD scores in the top 15 in the league -- and a player like Mirotic who has been a nightmare for defenses with his blend of size and playmaking, Rose doesn’t have to do nearly as much as he once did. While Rose’s return won’t have the effect that some may expect, his health, supplemented by his surrounding cast will give the Bulls a chance to win the championship this year. According to our algorithms, the Bulls now have a 3.8 percent chance to win the title, seventh-best in the NBA.