NBA

NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/11/23

Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place live in-game props with ease.

Please note that betting lines and our daily projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Tyrese Maxey Under 19.5 Points (-125)

Tyrese Maxey is coming off a stellar 30-point showing in the Philadelphia 76ers' big Game 5 road win. But that was his first scoring outburst since Game 1 of the series with the Boston Celtics, and I think Maxey reverts back to his modest-scoring ways tonight.

In Game 2 through Game 4, Maxey topped out at 14 points and averaged just 6.3 three-point tries per night. He was clearly behind Joel Embiid and James Harden in the 76ers' usage pecking order.

That changed in Game 5 as Maxey took a whopping 12 threes -- hitting 6 of them -- en route to his 30-point performance. He was a big beneficiary of Harden taking just eight shots. My money's on Harden putting up more shots tonight in Game 6 with Philly having a chance to close out the Celtics, which will likely lead to fewer looks for Maxey.

On top of that, Boston is a difficult matchup for two-guards as the Celtics held the position to the sixth-fewest points per game in the regular season (22.3).

We project Maxey to take only 5.6 threes tonight and to finish with 18.5 points. I'm riding with the under.

Devin Booker Under 32.5 Points (-125)

Regression is coming at some point -- right?

I wrote up the under on Devin Booker's made threes prop for Game 4, and that didn't work out as Booker continued his insane shooting and nailed 4 of 7 from deep. But I liked the process for that one, and I'm going with this under today.

Booker is making an astounding 60.0% of his shots in the series against the Denver Nuggets, including 57.1% of his threes, and he's taking a lot of tough mid-range shots, too, as he usually does.

For the playoffs, Booker is hitting 60.1% of his shots and 51.7% from three. The shot-making has been out of this world, and it's been amazing to watch.

But he has to slow down at some point. This is a guy who shot 49.4% from the field in the regular season, sinking 35.1% of his shots from beyond the arc and making just 2.1 threes per night.

Booker's usage rate in this series is 29.4%, which is a hefty mark but is actually below his regular-season usage rate of 31.8%, so if his scorching-hot shooting finally cools today, this under should cash.

What we're witnessing from Booker this postseason has been special, and maybe I'm a fool for betting (twice) against someone who is clearly in a zone few people have experienced. But I'm banking on regression getting him, and our model is also on the under's side, pegging Booker to score 30.7 points in Game 5.