NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/26/23

Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place live in-game props with ease.

Please note that betting lines and our daily projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Jimmy Butler Under 29.5 Points (-111)

Imagine betting against Jimmy Butler right now. Couldn't be me.

Despite Butler's incredible 56-point explosion in Game 4, I'm taking the under on his points prop for Game 5. I'm recommending this knowing full well it could blow up in my face, but I think there are good reasons to back this under.

Butler is shooting 62.8% from the field in the playoffs and is making 2.3 threes per game at a 52.9% clip from deep. None of those things can last. For the year, Butler hit 53.9% of his field goals and nailed only 0.6 threes per game. While Butler's 34.3% usage rate this postseason is working against us, he is bound to regress shooting-wise.

There's also plenty of blowout risk today.

The Milwaukee Bucks are 12.0-point favorites, and the line is moving Milwaukee's way. With their season on the brink, the Bucks have every reason to keep their foot on the gas, and if the Miami Heat get behind big, it would make sense for them to give Butler -- who has played 40-plus minutes twice in this series, including 43 minutes in Game 4 -- a seat on the bench in an effort to rest him for an all-important Game 6 in Miami. That scenario played out in Game 2, and Butler logged only 28 minutes.

Our model pegs Butler to score 27.3 points tonight. I understand the hesitation in going against Jimmy Buckets with Miami short-handed, but the under is the side I'll be on.

Evan Mobley Over 1.5 Blocks (+106)

I love the chance to get this at plus-money.

Evan Mobley has recorded at least a pair of blocks in two of the past three games in this series versus the New York Knicks.

Overall this season, counting the playoffs, Mobley has played the Knicks eight times, and he's swatted multiple shots in five of the eight games, including five of the last seven. He's averaging 1.9 blocks per game versus the Knicks this season.

Something else working in our favor is that Mobley is playing 2.9 more minutes per game in the postseason (37.3) than he did in the regular season (34.4)

We have Mobley projected for 1.8 blocks tonight. I'm a little more bullish on this over than our model is, but even at that projection, the over is worth a roll of the dice at this +106 price.