FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Wednesday 4/26/23

Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, daily fantasy basketball would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

We'll also come at you with this primer daily, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate and Key Injuries

Though a smattering of probable listings gave some length to today's injury report, there are only two true injuries to watch.

Of course, the first is De'Aaron Fox of the Kings. Fox's broken finger on his shooting hand has caused plenty of drama, but at the very least, De'Aaron says he's playing tonight against Golden State.

Secondarily, New York's Quentin Grimes (shoulder) missed Game 4 and is questionable to play in Game 5 against Cleveland.

Though several stars on the Heat, Bucks, and Lakers have probable listings, none are expected to actually have a chance to sit. Memphis' report is totally free of news.

Guards

In need of a win to take control of the series, tonight could feel like a vintage Stephen Curry ($9,900) masterclass.

Though he's struggled with occasional turnovers or stock (steal plus block) luck, Curry has dropped at least 28 points in every game of this series. His 26.8% usage rate in these four games also leads Golden State's starters by over five percentage points with Jordan Poole expected to shift back to the bench.

Curry also played 43 minutes in Game 4, which is part of the appeal of Ja Morant ($10,300), as well. Morant logged 44 on Monday and still eclipsed 44 FanDuel points despite dreadful 8-for-24 shooting. At home, Ja's stroke could certainly improve.

Everything went right for Jalen Brunson in Game 4, but he still reached just 47.2 FanDuel points. He's on an efficient run, but we'll see upside on this slate, and I'm not sure he has it with such a low total. Jrue Holiday ($8,300), Darius Garland ($7,800), and Klay Thompson ($7,200) are serviceable substitutes in the upper-mid-range.

In terms of value, maybe the three key triples D'Angelo Russell ($6,100) hit in Game 4 jumpstart him for this effort. He still logged just 28 minutes compared to 30 for Dennis Schroder ($4,500) due to foul trouble, but that could shift, and both are viable.

Another option is potentially guessing correctly on the Gabe Vincent ($4,700) or Kyle Lowry ($4,600) platoon, but Davion Mitchell ($4,900) should also hold an on-court role exceeding 25 minutes played.

Wings

I'm fearful of the spread in the Milwaukee contest tonight. A motivated and desperate Bucks team sits positioned as a 12-point favorite, and Giannis Antetokounmpo still holds his regular-season salary in a game without a spectacular total (220). There are plenty of paths to failure, including a hot night from a teammate like Khris Middleton ($7,700).

Of course, Jimmy Butler ($10,200) will be a fork in the road on this slate. Butler's usage rate in this series (32.1%) has been exceptional, and he's likely undersalaried for his role without Tyler Herro. That blowout risk, though, could be Butler's path to failure at extreme popularity.

This positional group is a stars-and-scrubs delight today behind those two -- plus LeBron James ($10,900) -- and a blank mid-range.

If Grimes sits, Josh Hart ($6,000) got the start in Game 4 and delivered 33.4 FanDuel points. With such a low usage rate (16.3% in this series), his production is very stable considering the opportunity. Caris LeVert ($5,900) is also blowing past 40 minutes on the other side for the Cavs.

Though Dillon Brooks ($4,900) doesn't have much skill or any fans, his salary has dropped to a place where we can't ignore the full-time role in one of the better environments of the day. Harrison Barnes ($5,900), Kevin Huerter ($5,700), and Grayson Allen ($4,200) also fit that description.

Bigs

The best plays of the slate are buried in this tier of stars that haven't played like stars. They won't all stay down forever.

Anthony Davis ($11,700) has the most obstructive salary, but buying low on his 4-for-13 (30.8%) is generally the right line of thinking. He could be ignored in lieu of Giannis, Butler, and Steph.

On the other side, Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,400) isn't necessarily struggling in DFS. He's topped 43 FanDuel points in three of four games but only topped 20 real-life points once. If he can add some scoring to these superhuman block stats, he'll demolish the slate.

Then, the final two stars that are indeed badly struggling are Domantas Sabonis ($9,100) and Julius Randle ($7,600). Sabonis hasn't exceeded 42 FanDuel points in the series despite averaging 48.7 per 36 minutes in the regular season. Randle has held a 29.1% usage rate, but you wouldn't know it amidst his shockingly poor 32.3% shooting.

Bam Adebayo ($7,500) and Evan Mobley ($7,000) are also well below their season median for salary -- and production rates. The top of big is a buy-low bonanza, which helps excuse minimal value.

If you do want to punt to lower-salaried alternatives, Jarrett Allen ($6,900), Kevon Looney ($6,300), and Rui Hachimura ($5,000) seem to be the logical spots to do so. Hachimura's role at the Lakers' four seems to be dwindling with fewer than 22 regulation minutes in back-to-back contests, though.