NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 3/16/23: Are We in for a High-Scoring Night?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons
Denver Nuggets Team Total: Over 121.5 (-110)
Over 229.0 (-110)
NBA spreads don't get much larger than this, as the Denver Nuggets are favored by 14.0 on the road against the Detroit Pistons, who are currently holding the league's worst record and are 1-9 in their past 10 games.
Detroit's injury list couldn't be much longer, either.
The Nuggets have lost four straight games themselves as teams are really starting to attack Nikola Jokic defensively.
But this all leads to over potential because the Nuggets are operating at an elite rate offensively still, and the Pistons aren't able to stifle scoring much at all.
There are enough questions on the Pistons' side that I prefer just taking the Denver team total, but combined, my model thinks this game goes over by a few points (233.1).
numberFire's model likes the over as a one-star play, too.
I wouldn't fault anyone for throwing the Nuggets' moneyline (-1150) into some parlays, either.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors
Oklahoma City Thunder +6.0 (-110)
Over 231.0 (-110)
The Thunder have won three straight and six of their past seven to keep their playoff hopes alive and to draw close to .500. Now at 34-35, they'll need a road win over the Toronto Raptors to get there.
I don't quite see that happening, but a 6.0-point spread is pretty large.
The Raptors are a game removed from a road trip, and in their return home, they beat the Nuggets by 15 points, so they'll look to continue this three-game homestand with a second win. I don't care who wins. I just think that the Thunder cover.
Their relevant net rating for this game is +0.4 with Toronto's at +0.1. Accounting for home-court advantage, my model has the Raptors winning but the Thunder covering. numberFire's model also likes the Thunder +6.0 as a one-unit play.
The over is also in play: my model projects a total of 233.4.
Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-295)
Over 228.5 (-110)
The Suns have dropped three straight games (to the Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors, and Milwaukee Bucks -- a respectable stretch) and need to get back on track against the visiting Orlando Magic, who most recently lost 132-114 to the San Antonio Spurs.
Although Phoenix is still without Kevin Durant, we have a sizable sample without him and with their key pieces active.
As for the Magic, they're just 12-22 on the road and hold an opponent-adjusted net rating of -4.1 in such games. I'm staying away from the spread but feel confident in the moneyline; numberFire's model gives the Suns an 82.6% chance to win, as well.
My model does predict some points here, though. Orlando's offense has largely traveled well (going over their implied total in 61.8% of road games), and the Suns are operating at an adjusted offensive rating of 119.1 since the break.
