NBA Betting Guide for Monday 1/16/23: Can the Knicks Beat the Raptors at Home?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
New Orleans Pelicans at Cleveland Cavaliers
New Orleans Pelicans +7.0 (-110)
Of course, New Orleans is 26-17 themselves, so without any injury context, this one should be closer than 7.0, but we know there are huge tweaks that need to be made.
Well, yes and no. Without Ingram and Williamson but in games with C.J. McCollum, the Pelicans have a 7-3 record and a +9.6 net rating. They are also 7-3 against the spread in that split, including 3-2 records both outright and against the spread in road games.
The Cavaliers are a great home team (18-4 with a +7.9 opponent-adjusted net rating). That being said, the relevant splits here have the Pelicans, for me, as just 4.9-point underdogs.
numberFire has New Orleans as 58.2% likely to cover and a two-unit suggestion.
Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks
New York Knicks Moneyline (-130)
This will be the third matchup of the season between the Toronto Raptors and Knicks. So far, the road team has won each matchup.
On December 21st, the Raptors won 113-106 at Madison Square Garden, and then on January 6th, the Knicks answered with a 112-108 win at Scotiabank Arena.
Of note, the Knicks have had 17 and 13 turnovers, respectively, in those matchups compared to 5 and 7 for Toronto.
The Knicks are fourth in turnovers per game (13.2), and while the Raptors are first (12.0), there should be some turnover regression brewing.
Overall, my model views the Knicks as 63.1% likely to win. numberFire's model has their odds at 60.0%.
Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline (-225)
Both sides of this matchup played yesterday. The Lakers hosted the Philadelphia 76ers last night in Los Angeles and lost 113-112.
Plus, the Lakers aren't 100%, as Anthony Davis is out, but they were rounding into form (a five-game win streak) before a three-game skid featuring a double-overtime loss to the Dallas Mavericks and the one-point loss last night. It's not that unthinkable that the Lakers would be stepping into this game with a 7-1 record over their past eight instead of a 5-3 record.
Houston has really fallen off the planet. They've lost 10 straight games by an average of 16.6 points, and they're 1-15 in their past 16 games with a -13.3 point differential and an 18.8% cover rate.
Accounting for health, my model has the Lakers favored by 9.8 points, and with the Rockets showing zero life, we can primarily target the moneyline for safety but also the spread (Lakers -5.5) if the -225 odds are too steep for your liking.