NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 1/4/23: Can the Bulls Cover Against the Surging Nets?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors
Under 226.5 (-110)
Additionally, there's now a travel component for the Bucks to face the Toronto Raptors, who are 11-8 at home.
The Bucks are just 8-9 on the road, and their point differential in those games is only -5.5. That would imply a worse record than 8-9. Their cover rate in road games is 31.3%.
They just don't score like they're projected to (4.9 points shy of their implied total) in these games. This number should drop throughout the day.
Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls
Under 235.5 (-110)
Chicago Bulls +4.5 (-110)
This will be the second matchup between the Bulls and Brooklyn Nets. In their first game, the Bulls won 108-99 in Brooklyn on November 1st.
Now, though, the Nets are on a 12-game win streak and are 16-1 in their past 17 games. That includes a 7-0 road record over that 17-game sample.
The Bulls are 4-4 in their past eight and 2-3 in their past five but -- overall -- boast a +3.4 opponent-adjusted point differential at home.
My model -- accounting for health -- thinks the spread should be Chicago +2.5. numberFire's algorithm likes Chicago +5.0 as a two-star play.
But the under also looks good.
Games in Chicago have gone over at a 38.9% rate, a bottom-five number in the league. numberFire's model likes the under as a three-star play.
Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors -6.5 (-110)
Over 232.0 (-110)
Any time the Warriors are at home, we should take note. They're 17-2 at home with a +9.3 point differential and a league-best 78.9% cover rate while going over their own implied team total in 63.2% of home games.
The Detroit Pistons are not good anywhere but are especially bad on the road (5-17 with an -8.5 point differential). They've allowed opponents to go over their implied team total at a 63.6% rate.
Those help us get on the Warriors to cover -- as well as the over.
My model thinks the total should be 238.0.