NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Friday 12/30/22: Riding With 3 Home Teams to Close Out the Week

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)

Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline (-245)
Over 227.5 (-110)

There are some injury adjustments that need to be made before breaking down this game.

The Minnesota Timberwolves remain without Karl-Anthony Towns, and the Milwaukee Bucks will be without Khris Middleton and list Jrue Holiday as doubtful.

Minnesota, with Towns inactive but Anthony Edwards, D'Angelo Russell, and Rudy Gobert playing, are 3-7 with a net rating of -4.5. That's tied to an offensive rating of 113.7 and a terrible defensive rating of 118.2.

The Bucks, with Giannis Antetokounmpo but without Middleton and Holiday, are 1-2 but have a respectable net rating of -0.3.

Though there's a slight lean on the over, the best angle overall is the moneyline for the Bucks. Milwaukee, at home, is 14-3 with a 70.6% cover rate. That is fourth-best in the NBA.

Minnesota, on the road, has a 38.9% cover rate with a 7-11 record.

Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans

Under 229.5 (-108)
New Orleans Pelicans Moneyline (-102)

The Philadelphia 76ers are another team with a worse-than-average road cover rate (42.9% from the NBA average of 46.3%) but are expected to have Tyrese Maxey back in the lineup, as he is listed as probable.

There have been only six games this season with Maxey, James Harden, and Joel Embiid all active together. Those came at the beginning of the season, and Philadelphia is 2-4 in those matchups with a net rating of -3.0.

The Pelicans remain without Brandon Ingram but have Zion Williamson and C.J. McCollum healthy. In games with them but without Ingram, New Orleans is 7-5 with a net rating of +3.1.

At home this season, New Orleans is 15-4 with a 57.9% cover rate and an opponent-adjusted point differential of +8.4, seventh-best in the NBA.

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors

Golden State Warriors +2.5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors Moneyline (+120)

The Warriors are another really good home team (15-2 overall despite an 18-18 record), and in home matchups, their point differential is +9.9 points. Adjusting for opponents faced, they have a +10.7 point differential and a league-best 76.5% home cover rate.

Yes, they're without Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, but in games without them and with Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, Golden State is 3-1 with a healthy +6.5 net rating.

The Portland Trail Blazers are just an okay road team (10-10), and in games with Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, and Anfernee Simons all active, they're 12-7 with a net rating of +4.6.

That being said, the adjustments for home-court advantage point to a nice plus-money moneyline opportunity for Golden State.