3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 12/29/22
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 Assists (+118)
There are safer prop bets to make, but any time we get a semblance of value on a prop with a line of +118, we should take note.
In their first meeting, Mitchell had only 3 assists but 41 points, so we can probably expect the Pacers to try to get the ball more out of his hands this time around.
Mitchell is averaging 4.5 assists per game overall, and at his projection of 5.2 helpers, we can consider him around 58.0% likely to go over here (i.e. odds of roughly -140 on the over).
Marcus Smart Over 3.5 Rebounds (+124)
A similar logic applies here where there are safer props to target, but this one at +124 odds is appealing.
Marcus Smart is projected to secure 3.8 rebounds tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers in a game with a 227.0-point total. Smart, on the year, has averaged 3.3 rebounds per game and 0.099 per minute.
The Clippers are just an average rebounding team (by rebounds per game allowed), and Smart -- at his projected output -- should be considered even money to go over here rather than +124.
Jaren Jackson Over 13.5 Points (-125)
Here's a big discrepancy between the projection (16.1) and the prop (13.5).
Jaren Jackson Jr. is expected to go over 13.5 points at around a 63.9% clip based on how high his projection is compared to the prop, so we have a lot of wiggle room here.
He is averaging 15.9 points per game on the season and 16.5 points per game against teams not in the top-10 defensively by points per game allowed.