NBA Betting Guide for Monday 12/26/22: Backing 3 Favorites
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline (-130)
Cleveland Cavaliers -2.0 (-110)
The Nets beat the Milwaukee Bucks 118-100 to extend their winning streak to eight games. That includes four road games bookended by home-home sets, so they're trending in all the right ways.
Overall, the Nets have a point differential of +9.9 in that eight-game span. But accounting for opponents, that drops down to a still-nice +6.7, and against the spread, it's down more to +4.9. Make no mistake: they're a good team right now, but the raw point differential is a bit inflated.
Cleveland is 16-3 at home with an adjusted point differential of +9.1 and a cover rate of 70.6%.
numerFire's model sees Cleveland's moneyline (-130) as a three-unit suggestion. They're also 54.7% likely to cover the spread.
Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs
Utah Jazz -4.5 (-110)
Utah Jazz Moneyline (-196)
Even at home, San Antonio is 5-12 overall and holds the only adjusted point differential worse than -7.0 in home games (and theirs is -10.4).
Utah is a mid-level road team with an adjusted point differential (-3.6) around the NBA average (-3.0) but does have a 55.6% cover rate in road games.
Based on the current health of both sides, my model thinks the spread should be 7.5 in Utah's favor rather than 4.5.
numberFire's algorithm likes the Utah moneyline (-196) as a three-star play and their spread as a two-unit opportunity.
Houston Rockets at Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls -7.5 (-110)
Under 230.5 (-110)
Speaking of those Rockets, they're not particularly good (9-23 overall and 3-13 on the road) and have lost five straight games -- all at home.
They now head to Chicago to play the Bulls, who are just 14-18 overall but 7-7 at home.
Houston's relevant net rating for this game is -7.3. Chicago's moneyline (-290) is the better overall option, but the heavy odds still keep the spread in play.
numberFire's algorithm likes this one to stay under 230.5 total points, and my projections have it at 227.0, as well.