NBA Betting Guide for Sunday 12/25/22: How to Bet the Christmas Day Games

Can the Warriors overcome their injuries? What's the best bet in each game on the Christmas Day slate?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks

New York Knicks +2.5 (-110)

There's a three-star angle here from numberFire's model on the Knicks to cover at home against the Philadelphia 76ers. Our algorithm has the Knicks at 57.1% likely to pick up the win and get to a 19-15 record.

The Sixers are 5-7 on the road and are also without Tyrese Maxey. They have just a 41.7% cover rate on the road.

New York beat Philadelphia 106-104 back in early November in Philadelphia.

numberFire's algo has the Knicks 63.6% likely to cover.

Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks

Under 230.0 (-110)

The main recommendation in this matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks is under 230.0 points.

Injury-wise, the Lakers are without Anthony Davis.

numberFire's model projects a total of only 221.3 points in this matchup, thus making the under 65.9% likely to hit. That leads to an expected return of 25.8%.

Of the 25 most comparable games in our database to this particular matchup, the under is 17-8-0 (68.0%).

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics Moneyline (-205)

The model here is loving the Celtics at home against the Milwaukee Bucks, who list Khris Middleton as doubtful. numberFire's algorithm has Boston at 71.6% likely to win outright, suggesting an expected moneyline of -252.

The Bucks haven't traveled well this season. They're only 8-7 on the road with a spread-adjusted point differential of -6.6 and a cover rate of only 35.7%.

Boston, at home, is 12-5 with a 58.8% cover rate and an opponent-adjusted point differential of +9.8.

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

Over 229.5 (-110)

There are a lot of injuries to account for in this one.

The Golden State Warriors are without Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins and list Draymond Green as questionable. In two games without Curry and Wiggins but with Green and Klay Thompson, the Warriors still have an offensive rating of 124.2 over a small sample of 153 possessions.

That's enough to side with the over (229.5) against the Memphis Grizzlies.

numberFire's model does like the Warriors' spread (+6.5), but I think it's a fair line and will prefer the over.

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets

Under 230.5 (-110)

This will be the first of four matchups between the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets, and it should be a tight one.

numberFire's model gives the Nuggets a 51.1% chance to win but likes the Suns to cover (+3.5) as a two-star play. I can get on board with that if Devin Booker (questionable) suits up.

But the preferred angle is on the total. The under is rating out as 57.6% likely, via numberFire's algorithm.

Only 28.6% of the Nuggets' home games have gone over, and they fall short by an average of 3.3 points. Specifically, they have gone over their implied team total at home in just 14.3% of their 14 home games, by far the lowest rate in the NBA.